MNSO
MINISO Group Holding Limited Consumer Discretionary - Value Retail Investor Relations →
MINISO Group Holding Limited (MNSO) closed at $13.00 as of 2026-07-31, trading 25.9% below its 200-week moving average of $17.53. This places MNSO in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -30.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 35, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.14 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 254 weeks of data, MNSO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times. On average, these episodes lasted 32 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -19.3%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $3.9 billion, MNSO is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 18.8%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.4x book value.
Over the past 4.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MNSO would have grown to $94, compared to $186 for the S&P 500. MNSO has returned -1.3% annualized vs 13.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 109.4% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MNSO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MNSO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 3 historical episodes, buying MNSO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -19.0% after 12 months (median +26.0%), compared to +0.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +32.0% vs +21.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MNSO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MNSO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MNSO has crossed below its 200-week MA 3 times with an average 1-year return of +-19.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2021 | Jan 2023 | 68 | 69.8% | -64.9% | +8.9% |
| Jul 2024 | Sep 2024 | 7 | 5.9% | +26.4% | -9.3% |
| Mar 2026 | Ongoing | 22+ | 34.2% | Ongoing | -21.3% |
| Average | 32 | — | +-19.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MNSO below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, MINISO Group Holding Limited (MNSO) is trading 25.9% below its 200-week moving average of $17.53. The current price is $13.00.
What is MNSO's 200-week moving average price?
MINISO Group Holding Limited's 200-week moving average is $17.53 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MNSO drops below its 200-week moving average?
MNSO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -19.3%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 32 weeks on average.
Is MNSO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MNSO as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 35. Return on equity is 18.8%. Price-to-book is 2.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MNSO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 4.9 years, $100 invested in MNSO would have grown to $94, compared to $186 for the S&P 500. That's -1.3% annualized vs 13.4% for the index. MNSO has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MNSO pay a dividend?
Yes. MINISO Group Holding Limited currently pays a dividend yield of 509.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31