MNRO
Monro, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Auto Parts Investor Relations →
Monro, Inc. (MNRO) closed at $12.10 as of 2026-09-18, trading 47.7% below its 200-week moving average of $23.12. This places MNRO in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -45.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 36, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.82 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1785 weeks of data, MNRO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times. On average, these episodes lasted 32 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MNRO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +4.9%.
With a market cap of $378 million, MNRO is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 8.9%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 1.4%. The stock trades at 0.7x book value.
Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 4.4% reduction over three years. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MNRO would have grown to $551, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. MNRO has returned 5.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 7 open-market purchases totaling $53,236,208. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects. Notably, these purchases occurred while MNRO is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -39.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MNRO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MNRO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying MNRO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +6.6% after 12 months (median +1.0%), compared to +11.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +15.3% vs +29.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MNRO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MNRO would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MNRO's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $10.38 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $12.72 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $16.42 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $23.16 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $39.26 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | $0.02 | $-0.09 | -475.0% |
| 2026-05-27 | $-0.05 | $-0.16 | -196.3% |
| 2026-01-28 | $0.14 | $0.16 | +17.6% |
| 2025-10-29 | $0.18 | $0.21 | +16.7% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MNRO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MNRO has crossed below its 200-week MA 21 times with an average 1-year return of +4.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1992 | Nov 1992 | 18 | 13.5% | +3.8% | +430.1% |
| Dec 1992 | May 1993 | 24 | 13.4% | +23.5% | +473.3% |
| Jun 1995 | Jul 1995 | 3 | 2.6% | +29.1% | +380.2% |
| Jul 1995 | Oct 1995 | 12 | 2.7% | +39.4% | +372.2% |
| Oct 1995 | Mar 1996 | 19 | 11.0% | +19.2% | +376.2% |
| Nov 1996 | Dec 1996 | 4 | 8.0% | -1.9% | +338.6% |
| Sep 1997 | Mar 1998 | 24 | 12.0% | -32.3% | +311.0% |
| Jun 1998 | Jun 1998 | 1 | 5.8% | -43.4% | +329.5% |
| Jul 1998 | Mar 2001 | 140 | 52.5% | -41.9% | +349.4% |
| Dec 2007 | Aug 2008 | 35 | 25.5% | +22.5% | +37.2% |
| Sep 2008 | Oct 2008 | 4 | 6.4% | +55.1% | +29.1% |
| Nov 2008 | Dec 2008 | 3 | 15.0% | +57.8% | +35.3% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 2 | 4.9% | -7.0% | -69.6% |
| Dec 2016 | Dec 2016 | 1 | 1.9% | +7.7% | -70.9% |
| Jan 2017 | Feb 2017 | 1 | 2.7% | +0.9% | -71.0% |
| Feb 2017 | Dec 2017 | 42 | 28.9% | -7.4% | -71.9% |
| Jan 2018 | Jun 2018 | 18 | 10.0% | +33.5% | -71.2% |
| Jan 2020 | Feb 2021 | 53 | 35.5% | -5.1% | -75.4% |
| Jun 2021 | Jun 2021 | 1 | 1.0% | -33.2% | -75.3% |
| Jul 2021 | Nov 2021 | 16 | 12.5% | -21.7% | -75.5% |
| Nov 2021 | Ongoing | 253+ | 65.6% | Ongoing | -75.0% |
| Average | 32 | — | +4.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MNRO below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Monro, Inc. (MNRO) is trading 47.7% below its 200-week moving average of $23.12. The current price is $12.10.
What is MNRO's 200-week moving average price?
Monro, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $23.12 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MNRO drops below its 200-week moving average?
MNRO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +4.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 32 weeks on average.
Is MNRO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MNRO as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 36. Free cash flow yield is 8.9%. Return on equity is 1.4%. Price-to-book is 0.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MNRO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in MNRO would have grown to $551, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 5.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MNRO has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MNRO pay a dividend?
Yes. Monro, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 926.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18