MNRO
Monro, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Auto Parts Investor Relations →
Monro, Inc. (MNRO) closed at $15.55 as of 2026-06-19, trading 38.3% below its 200-week moving average of $25.19. This places MNRO in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -37.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 52, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.7x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 1772 weeks of data, MNRO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times. On average, these episodes lasted 32 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MNRO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +4.9%.
With a market cap of $467 million, MNRO is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 16.5%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 0.4%. The stock trades at 0.8x book value.
Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 4.4% reduction over three years. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MNRO would have grown to $692, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. MNRO has returned 5.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 7 open-market purchases totaling $53,236,208. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects. Notably, these purchases occurred while MNRO is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -39.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MNRO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MNRO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying MNRO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +6.6% after 12 months (median +1.0%), compared to +11.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +15.3% vs +29.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MNRO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MNRO would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MNRO's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $12.17 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $13.66 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $15.55 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $18.06 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $21.52 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MNRO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MNRO has crossed below its 200-week MA 21 times with an average 1-year return of +4.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1992 | Nov 1992 | 18 | 13.5% | +3.8% | +566.4% |
| Dec 1992 | May 1993 | 24 | 13.4% | +23.5% | +620.8% |
| Jun 1995 | Jul 1995 | 3 | 2.6% | +29.1% | +503.7% |
| Jul 1995 | Oct 1995 | 12 | 2.7% | +39.4% | +493.6% |
| Oct 1995 | Mar 1996 | 19 | 11.0% | +19.2% | +498.6% |
| Nov 1996 | Dec 1996 | 4 | 8.0% | -1.9% | +451.4% |
| Sep 1997 | Mar 1998 | 24 | 12.0% | -32.3% | +416.7% |
| Jun 1998 | Jun 1998 | 1 | 5.8% | -43.4% | +440.0% |
| Jul 1998 | Mar 2001 | 140 | 52.5% | -41.9% | +465.0% |
| Dec 2007 | Aug 2008 | 35 | 25.5% | +22.5% | +72.5% |
| Sep 2008 | Oct 2008 | 4 | 6.6% | +55.1% | +62.3% |
| Nov 2008 | Dec 2008 | 3 | 15.0% | +57.8% | +70.0% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 2 | 4.9% | -7.0% | -61.8% |
| Dec 2016 | Dec 2016 | 1 | 1.9% | +7.7% | -63.4% |
| Jan 2017 | Feb 2017 | 1 | 2.7% | +0.9% | -63.5% |
| Feb 2017 | Dec 2017 | 42 | 28.8% | -7.4% | -64.7% |
| Jan 2018 | Jun 2018 | 18 | 10.0% | +33.5% | -63.8% |
| Jan 2020 | Feb 2021 | 53 | 35.5% | -5.1% | -69.0% |
| Jun 2021 | Jun 2021 | 1 | 1.0% | -33.2% | -69.0% |
| Jul 2021 | Nov 2021 | 16 | 12.4% | -21.7% | -69.2% |
| Nov 2021 | Ongoing | 240+ | 65.6% | Ongoing | -68.6% |
| Average | 32 | — | +4.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MNRO below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Monro, Inc. (MNRO) is trading 38.3% below its 200-week moving average of $25.19. The current price is $15.55.
What is MNRO's 200-week moving average price?
Monro, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $25.19 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MNRO drops below its 200-week moving average?
MNRO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +4.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 32 weeks on average.
Is MNRO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MNRO as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 52. Free cash flow yield is 16.5%. Return on equity is 0.4%. Price-to-book is 0.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MNRO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in MNRO would have grown to $692, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 5.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MNRO has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MNRO pay a dividend?
Yes. Monro, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 700.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19