MNR
Mach Natural Resources LP Energy - Oil & Gas E&P Investor Relations →
Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR) closed at $13.64 as of 2026-07-31, trading 8.3% above its 200-week moving average of $12.59. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 6.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 62, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.01 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 96 weeks of data, MNR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 14 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -5.6%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $2.3 billion, MNR is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 5.7%. The stock trades at 1.2x book value.
Share count has increased 77.1% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 1.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MNR would have grown to $107, compared to $133 for the S&P 500. MNR has returned 3.4% annualized vs 16.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -8.7% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MNR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MNR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 4 historical episodes, buying MNR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -0.3% after 12 months (median +1.0%), compared to +18.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MNR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MNR would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MNR's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-06.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $11.17 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $12.53 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $14.28 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $16.58 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $19.78 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MNR's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MNR has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +-5.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2024 | Dec 2024 | 12 | 10.8% | -7.5% | +6.7% |
| Feb 2025 | Jun 2025 | 21 | 16.5% | -11.7% | +6.2% |
| Jul 2025 | Mar 2026 | 33 | 20.8% | +2.3% | +6.1% |
| Apr 2026 | Apr 2026 | 3 | 3.4% | N/A | +12.7% |
| Jun 2026 | Jun 2026 | 1 | 1.0% | N/A | +9.6% |
| Average | 14 | — | +-5.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MNR below its 200-week moving average?
No. Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR) is currently 8.3% above its 200-week moving average of $12.59. It would need to fall to $12.59 to cross below the line.
What is MNR's 200-week moving average price?
Mach Natural Resources LP's 200-week moving average is $12.59 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MNR drops below its 200-week moving average?
MNR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -5.6%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 14 weeks on average.
Is MNR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MNR as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 62. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 5.7%. Price-to-book is 1.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MNR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 1.9 years, $100 invested in MNR would have grown to $107, compared to $133 for the S&P 500. That's 3.4% annualized vs 16.0% for the index. MNR has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MNR pay a dividend?
Yes. Mach Natural Resources LP currently pays a dividend yield of 1350.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31