MMSI
Merit Medical Systems, Inc. Healthcare - Medical Instruments & Supplies Investor Relations →
Merit Medical Systems, Inc. (MMSI) closed at $67.22 as of 2026-06-19, trading 16.9% below its 200-week moving average of $80.89. This places MMSI in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -17.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 45, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.88 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1835 weeks of data, MMSI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 41 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MMSI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +25.7%.
With a market cap of $4.0 billion, MMSI is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.4%. Return on equity stands at 9.1%. The stock trades at 2.5x book value.
Share count has increased 3.7% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MMSI would have grown to $2964, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. MMSI has returned 10.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 47.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MMSI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MMSI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 41 historical episodes, buying MMSI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +24.9% after 12 months (median +18.0%), compared to +17.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +49.3% vs +30.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MMSI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MMSI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MMSI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-30.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $55.30 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $58.81 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $62.79 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $67.34 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $72.61 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MMSI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MMSI has crossed below its 200-week MA 41 times with an average 1-year return of +25.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1992 | May 1995 | 160 | 48.0% | -38.9% | +2493.4% |
| Jul 1995 | Jul 1995 | 3 | 4.6% | +25.9% | +3119.3% |
| Oct 1995 | Dec 1995 | 9 | 10.5% | +25.5% | +3561.2% |
| Jun 1997 | Jun 1997 | 1 | 2.1% | +26.4% | +3423.1% |
| Aug 1997 | Sep 1997 | 3 | 2.2% | -2.8% | +3390.1% |
| Nov 1997 | Apr 1998 | 22 | 19.2% | -9.3% | +3357.8% |
| Aug 1998 | Sep 1999 | 55 | 32.5% | -9.1% | +3294.9% |
| Sep 1999 | Dec 1999 | 12 | 16.2% | +1.0% | +3672.2% |
| Jan 2000 | Jan 2000 | 1 | 0.9% | -26.5% | +3204.8% |
| Apr 2000 | Apr 2001 | 51 | 36.4% | +49.9% | +4454.2% |
| May 2001 | May 2001 | 1 | 3.5% | +291.5% | +3634.4% |
| Oct 2004 | Nov 2004 | 6 | 11.6% | +20.2% | +707.9% |
| Mar 2005 | Apr 2005 | 4 | 4.4% | +12.9% | +595.0% |
| Oct 2005 | Feb 2006 | 16 | 13.7% | +24.0% | +572.2% |
| Feb 2006 | Oct 2006 | 33 | 24.0% | -10.8% | +491.3% |
| Jan 2007 | Jan 2007 | 1 | 0.2% | +6.9% | +460.2% |
| Feb 2007 | Nov 2007 | 40 | 26.7% | +8.0% | +455.7% |
| Nov 2008 | Nov 2008 | 1 | 7.9% | +28.9% | +531.3% |
| Feb 2009 | Apr 2009 | 11 | 31.9% | +20.4% | +503.2% |
| May 2009 | Jun 2009 | 3 | 5.4% | +9.5% | +480.7% |
| Feb 2010 | Mar 2010 | 6 | 7.2% | +23.7% | +483.1% |
| May 2010 | May 2010 | 1 | 3.4% | +58.8% | +470.0% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 2 | 2.2% | +55.3% | +449.5% |
| Nov 2010 | Dec 2010 | 5 | 2.7% | +9.2% | +444.9% |
| Jan 2011 | Feb 2011 | 5 | 5.8% | +6.2% | +446.7% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 3.8% | +10.3% | +423.5% |
| Sep 2011 | Sep 2011 | 1 | 2.2% | +12.2% | +412.7% |
| Sep 2011 | Dec 2011 | 11 | 6.3% | +13.6% | +411.6% |
| Dec 2011 | Jan 2012 | 3 | 3.6% | +0.7% | +402.4% |
| Feb 2012 | Jun 2012 | 20 | 14.3% | +4.9% | +402.4% |
| Jul 2012 | Jul 2012 | 1 | 0.4% | -2.3% | +403.1% |
| Nov 2012 | Dec 2012 | 8 | 3.7% | +18.9% | +406.9% |
| Feb 2013 | Jul 2013 | 23 | 28.8% | +28.1% | +473.1% |
| Aug 2013 | Oct 2013 | 9 | 8.7% | -4.1% | +410.8% |
| Apr 2014 | May 2014 | 5 | 8.8% | +41.5% | +397.9% |
| Jul 2014 | Oct 2014 | 12 | 13.1% | +98.1% | +421.1% |
| Aug 2019 | May 2020 | 41 | 38.6% | +22.0% | +83.3% |
| Jun 2020 | Jun 2020 | 3 | 0.1% | +48.0% | +60.5% |
| Sep 2020 | Oct 2020 | 3 | 5.0% | +69.8% | +59.3% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 1.7% | +60.2% | +29.3% |
| Feb 2026 | Ongoing | 17+ | 24.1% | Ongoing | -12.9% |
| Average | 15 | — | +25.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MMSI below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Merit Medical Systems, Inc. (MMSI) is trading 16.9% below its 200-week moving average of $80.89. The current price is $67.22.
What is MMSI's 200-week moving average price?
Merit Medical Systems, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $80.89 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MMSI drops below its 200-week moving average?
MMSI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 41 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +25.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 15 weeks on average.
Is MMSI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MMSI as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 45. Free cash flow yield is 4.4%. Return on equity is 9.1%. Price-to-book is 2.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MMSI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in MMSI would have grown to $2964, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 10.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MMSI has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19