MLM
Martin Marietta Materials Inc. Materials - Construction Aggregates Investor Relations →
Martin Marietta Materials Inc. (MLM) closed at $609.12 as of 2026-06-19, trading 21.0% above its 200-week moving average of $503.48. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 14.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 55, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.91 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1639 weeks of data, MLM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MLM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +23.5%.
With a market cap of $36.6 billion, MLM is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.3%. Return on equity stands at 9.5%. The stock trades at 3.2x book value.
Over the past 31.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MLM would have grown to $4864, compared to $2745 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.1% vs 11.1% for the index — confirming MLM as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 24.3% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MLM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MLM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying MLM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +23.6% after 12 months (median +20.0%), compared to +9.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 70% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +33.5% vs +20.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MLM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MLM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MLM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $530.28 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $559.90 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $593.02 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $630.31 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $672.61 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MLM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MLM has crossed below its 200-week MA 20 times with an average 1-year return of +23.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1995 | Apr 1995 | 13 | 10.3% | +16.2% | +4863.2% |
| Jun 1995 | Nov 1995 | 20 | 6.6% | +23.1% | +4409.9% |
| Nov 1995 | Nov 1995 | 1 | 0.8% | +22.1% | +4440.3% |
| Dec 1999 | Dec 1999 | 1 | 2.9% | +23.0% | +2238.5% |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2000 | 2 | 4.0% | +23.8% | +2194.7% |
| Aug 2000 | Dec 2000 | 18 | 20.0% | +5.0% | +1991.7% |
| Jan 2001 | Feb 2001 | 4 | 6.8% | +10.4% | +1938.8% |
| Mar 2001 | Apr 2001 | 3 | 2.7% | +1.0% | +1875.1% |
| Jul 2001 | Dec 2001 | 22 | 18.9% | -16.9% | +1825.3% |
| Jan 2002 | Oct 2003 | 91 | 35.1% | -28.6% | +1747.4% |
| Jul 2008 | Jul 2008 | 1 | 1.8% | -16.2% | +715.9% |
| Sep 2008 | Dec 2008 | 12 | 35.3% | +5.3% | +756.3% |
| Jan 2009 | Jan 2012 | 160 | 30.9% | -2.3% | +687.3% |
| Apr 2012 | Jul 2012 | 10 | 18.7% | +37.0% | +776.6% |
| Jul 2012 | Sep 2012 | 6 | 5.8% | +32.4% | +771.7% |
| Sep 2018 | Nov 2018 | 7 | 14.8% | +50.2% | +253.8% |
| Dec 2018 | Feb 2019 | 10 | 11.2% | +52.0% | +253.9% |
| Mar 2020 | Jul 2020 | 18 | 27.4% | +75.1% | +220.3% |
| Jul 2020 | Aug 2020 | 1 | 2.4% | +76.8% | +205.6% |
| Aug 2020 | Sep 2020 | 4 | 2.8% | +80.3% | +202.0% |
| Average | 20 | — | +23.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MLM below its 200-week moving average?
No. Martin Marietta Materials Inc. (MLM) is currently 21.0% above its 200-week moving average of $503.48. It would need to fall to $503.48 to cross below the line.
What is MLM's 200-week moving average price?
Martin Marietta Materials Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $503.48 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MLM drops below its 200-week moving average?
MLM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +23.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 20 weeks on average.
Is MLM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MLM as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 55. Free cash flow yield is 2.3%. Return on equity is 9.5%. Price-to-book is 3.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MLM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 31.5 years, $100 invested in MLM would have grown to $4864, compared to $2745 for the S&P 500. That's 13.1% annualized vs 11.1% for the index. MLM has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MLM pay a dividend?
Yes. Martin Marietta Materials Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 55.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19