MLI
Mueller Industries, Inc. Industrials - Metal Fabrication Investor Relations →
Mueller Industries, Inc. (MLI) closed at $137.39 as of 2026-06-19, trading 105.2% above its 200-week moving average of $66.94. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 107.9% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 72, MLI is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.97 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1794 weeks of data, MLI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MLI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +25.9%.
With a market cap of $15.2 billion, MLI is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.3%. Return on equity stands at 28.3%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 4.6x book value.
Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 2.5% reduction over three years. MLI passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MLI would have grown to $22094, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 17.5% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming MLI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MLI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MLI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 26 historical episodes, buying MLI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +23.7% after 12 months (median +19.0%), compared to +4.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 73% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +35.0% vs +12.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MLI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MLI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MLI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-21.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $99.36 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $108.41 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $119.26 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $132.53 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $149.12 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MLI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MLI has crossed below its 200-week MA 26 times with an average 1-year return of +25.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1992 | Mar 1992 | 5 | 16.5% | +143.1% | +55749.0% |
| Oct 1998 | Oct 1998 | 2 | 6.6% | +60.0% | +6601.9% |
| Dec 1998 | Jan 1999 | 4 | 6.3% | +83.3% | +6492.0% |
| Feb 1999 | Mar 1999 | 3 | 4.5% | +33.4% | +5848.4% |
| Jun 2000 | Jun 2000 | 1 | 0.1% | +18.2% | +4641.9% |
| Sep 2000 | Feb 2001 | 21 | 22.2% | +17.5% | +5469.4% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 3 | 9.0% | -0.3% | +4641.9% |
| Oct 2001 | Nov 2001 | 1 | 0.7% | -4.1% | +4233.1% |
| Jul 2002 | Oct 2003 | 64 | 21.1% | +1.5% | +4696.2% |
| Oct 2004 | Nov 2004 | 1 | 13.0% | +65.7% | +4572.5% |
| Dec 2007 | Dec 2007 | 1 | 2.4% | -23.4% | +2548.1% |
| Dec 2007 | Apr 2008 | 15 | 16.4% | -4.0% | +2745.6% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 1 | 0.7% | -30.5% | +2386.3% |
| Jul 2008 | Apr 2010 | 89 | 43.3% | -8.7% | +2744.4% |
| May 2010 | Sep 2010 | 21 | 11.9% | +39.8% | +2594.2% |
| Dec 2015 | Mar 2016 | 14 | 15.2% | +45.9% | +1135.4% |
| May 2017 | May 2017 | 2 | 1.4% | +6.5% | +994.9% |
| Aug 2017 | Aug 2017 | 2 | 1.6% | +12.0% | +983.4% |
| Feb 2018 | May 2018 | 16 | 13.7% | +21.5% | +1073.7% |
| Jun 2018 | Jul 2018 | 4 | 1.5% | +0.6% | +939.7% |
| Sep 2018 | Feb 2019 | 21 | 25.5% | +3.0% | +955.7% |
| May 2019 | Oct 2019 | 24 | 13.0% | -8.9% | +945.5% |
| Jan 2020 | Feb 2020 | 1 | 1.9% | +18.9% | +929.5% |
| Feb 2020 | Aug 2020 | 23 | 35.1% | +47.5% | +973.3% |
| Sep 2020 | Oct 2020 | 4 | 8.6% | +50.2% | +937.1% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 0.1% | +84.1% | +925.3% |
| Average | 13 | — | +25.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MLI below its 200-week moving average?
No. Mueller Industries, Inc. (MLI) is currently 105.2% above its 200-week moving average of $66.94. It would need to fall to $66.94 to cross below the line.
What is MLI's 200-week moving average price?
Mueller Industries, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $66.94 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MLI drops below its 200-week moving average?
MLI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +25.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 13 weeks on average.
Is MLI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MLI as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 72 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 3.3%. Return on equity is 28.3%. Price-to-book is 4.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MLI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in MLI would have grown to $22094, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 17.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MLI has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19