MKTX
MarketAxess Holdings Inc. Financial Services - Capital Markets Investor Relations →
MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX) closed at $163.42 as of 2026-09-18, trading 24.7% below its 200-week moving average of $217.13. This places MKTX in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -25.1% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 83, MKTX is in overbought territory.
Over the past 14 weeks, up-weeks have carried more volume than down-weeks (1.75 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). When trading picks up, it's more often on days the price is rising — buyers are showing more interest than sellers.
Over the past 1093 weeks of data, MKTX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 78 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -19.5%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $5.8 billion, MKTX is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 23.1%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 4.6x book value.
Over the past 21 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MKTX would have grown to $1636, compared to $931 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.2% vs 11.2% for the index — confirming MKTX as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 10.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MKTX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MKTX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 5 historical episodes, buying MKTX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -9.8% after 12 months (median -5.0%), compared to -9.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 20% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -11.2% vs +9.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MKTX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MKTX would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MKTX's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $71.02 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $86.28 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $109.89 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $151.27 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $242.66 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | $1.86 | $1.95 | +5.0% |
| 2026-05-07 | $2.15 | $2.25 | +4.4% |
| 2026-02-06 | $1.64 | $1.68 | +2.4% |
| 2025-11-07 | $1.70 | $1.84 | +8.1% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MKTX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MKTX has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +-19.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2005 | Nov 2006 | 56 | 25.4% | -10.2% | +1543.3% |
| Dec 2007 | Sep 2009 | 94 | 64.6% | -42.4% | +1513.7% |
| Nov 2021 | Dec 2021 | 1 | 3.4% | -18.6% | -50.1% |
| Jan 2022 | Feb 2022 | 3 | 9.0% | -6.9% | -52.2% |
| Feb 2022 | Ongoing | 238+ | 49.6% | Ongoing | -52.8% |
| Average | 78 | — | +-19.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MKTX below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX) is trading 24.7% below its 200-week moving average of $217.13. The current price is $163.42.
What is MKTX's 200-week moving average price?
MarketAxess Holdings Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $217.13 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MKTX drops below its 200-week moving average?
MKTX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -19.5%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 78 weeks on average.
Is MKTX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MKTX as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 83 (overbought). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 23.1%. Price-to-book is 4.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MKTX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 21 years, $100 invested in MKTX would have grown to $1636, compared to $931 for the S&P 500. That's 14.2% annualized vs 11.2% for the index. MKTX has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MKTX pay a dividend?
Yes. MarketAxess Holdings Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 191.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18