MITK
Mitek Systems, Inc. Technology - Software - Application Investor Relations →
Mitek Systems, Inc. (MITK) closed at $17.25 as of 2026-06-19, trading 60.4% above its 200-week moving average of $10.76. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 53.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 61, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.95 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1906 weeks of data, MITK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 33 times. On average, these episodes lasted 32 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MITK at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +27.3%.
With a market cap of $779 million, MITK is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.0%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 7.2%. The stock trades at 3.2x book value.
Share count has increased 2.1% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MITK would have grown to $1416, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. MITK has returned 8.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 39.4% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MITK vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MITK Crosses Below the Line?
Across 29 historical episodes, buying MITK when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +22.4% after 12 months (median -17.0%), compared to +16.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 41% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +40.0% vs +34.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MITK crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MITK would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MITK's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-06.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $11.58 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $14.23 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $18.46 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $26.26 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $45.50 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MITK's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MITK has crossed below its 200-week MA 33 times with an average 1-year return of +27.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1990 | Mar 1990 | 11 | 18.2% | -37.5% | +1050.3% |
| Apr 1990 | May 1990 | 4 | 10.2% | +72.0% | +1004.3% |
| Jun 1990 | Aug 1990 | 11 | 31.9% | +23.1% | +961.8% |
| Sep 1990 | Mar 1991 | 24 | 51.7% | +65.2% | +1100.3% |
| Nov 1991 | Jan 1992 | 9 | 18.0% | -46.2% | +961.8% |
| Mar 1992 | Sep 1993 | 76 | 73.5% | -40.0% | +1004.3% |
| Sep 1993 | Jan 1994 | 15 | 22.1% | N/A | +1214.7% |
| Jan 1994 | Feb 1994 | 2 | 9.8% | -10.0% | +1280.4% |
| Apr 1994 | Feb 1995 | 44 | 29.8% | -16.7% | +1214.7% |
| Mar 1995 | Jun 1995 | 16 | 31.8% | +142.9% | +1872.0% |
| Aug 1995 | Aug 1995 | 2 | 8.2% | +233.3% | +1433.8% |
| Dec 1996 | Jan 1997 | 2 | 12.7% | -18.8% | +1050.3% |
| Apr 1997 | May 1999 | 110 | 76.8% | -44.6% | +886.0% |
| Oct 2000 | Nov 2003 | 161 | 80.2% | -17.3% | +820.3% |
| Nov 2003 | Dec 2003 | 3 | 20.3% | -74.5% | +798.7% |
| Feb 2004 | Nov 2005 | 95 | 71.1% | -75.2% | +971.7% |
| Jun 2006 | Jul 2006 | 1 | 3.2% | -37.7% | +1527.8% |
| Aug 2006 | Aug 2006 | 1 | 4.7% | -47.6% | +1543.3% |
| Nov 2006 | Aug 2009 | 143 | 92.3% | -61.8% | +1468.6% |
| Nov 2009 | Nov 2009 | 1 | 8.8% | +565.0% | +2775.8% |
| Apr 2012 | Jun 2012 | 7 | 41.8% | +90.7% | +516.2% |
| Jul 2012 | Jul 2012 | 2 | 13.5% | +78.0% | +467.6% |
| Sep 2012 | Feb 2013 | 19 | 38.8% | +62.8% | +434.2% |
| Apr 2013 | Apr 2013 | 1 | 2.8% | -16.3% | +318.8% |
| Feb 2014 | Nov 2015 | 90 | 60.0% | -39.7% | +225.0% |
| Dec 2015 | Jan 2016 | 3 | 5.2% | +57.2% | +324.0% |
| Nov 2019 | Jan 2020 | 10 | 16.8% | +82.2% | +113.0% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 7 | 29.9% | +77.5% | +105.2% |
| Apr 2022 | Dec 2023 | 85 | 30.0% | -19.2% | +54.5% |
| Jan 2024 | Mar 2024 | 12 | 11.8% | -9.5% | +44.0% |
| Apr 2024 | Apr 2024 | 2 | 7.1% | -37.2% | +41.7% |
| May 2024 | Dec 2025 | 83 | 38.4% | -25.1% | +32.3% |
| Dec 2025 | Feb 2026 | 5 | 4.3% | N/A | +73.1% |
| Average | 32 | — | +27.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MITK below its 200-week moving average?
No. Mitek Systems, Inc. (MITK) is currently 60.4% above its 200-week moving average of $10.76. It would need to fall to $10.76 to cross below the line.
What is MITK's 200-week moving average price?
Mitek Systems, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $10.76 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MITK drops below its 200-week moving average?
MITK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 33 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +27.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 32 weeks on average.
Is MITK a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MITK as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 61. Free cash flow yield is 6.0%. Return on equity is 7.2%. Price-to-book is 3.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MITK compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in MITK would have grown to $1416, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 8.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MITK has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19