MIDD
The Middleby Corporation Industrials - Food Equipment Investor Relations →
The Middleby Corporation (MIDD) closed at $172.26 as of 2026-06-19, trading 22.1% above its 200-week moving average of $141.03. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 12.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 63, indicating neutral momentum.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.1x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 1979 weeks of data, MIDD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 23 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -2.6%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $7.8 billion, MIDD is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.0%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 12.0%. The stock trades at 3.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 8.9% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MIDD would have grown to $50186, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 20.4% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming MIDD as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 2 open-market purchases totaling $15,096,729.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 28.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MIDD vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MIDD Crosses Below the Line?
Across 26 historical episodes, buying MIDD when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +6.3% after 12 months (median +5.0%), compared to +9.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +29.6% vs +21.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MIDD crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MIDD would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MIDD's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $115.15 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $125.09 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $136.91 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $151.20 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $168.81 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MIDD's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MIDD has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +-2.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1989 | Oct 1989 | 4 | 10.1% | -67.5% | +18778.6% |
| Dec 1989 | Sep 1993 | 196 | 81.2% | -77.7% | +19127.3% |
| Feb 1998 | Apr 1998 | 6 | 7.3% | -48.7% | +15000.2% |
| May 1998 | Jul 1999 | 62 | 55.3% | -24.0% | +16306.9% |
| Aug 1999 | Feb 2000 | 27 | 37.3% | +30.2% | +19741.0% |
| Feb 2000 | May 2000 | 12 | 19.9% | -4.2% | +16306.9% |
| Sep 2000 | Oct 2000 | 8 | 20.3% | -4.7% | +16963.2% |
| Nov 2000 | Apr 2001 | 20 | 10.5% | -32.1% | +16466.2% |
| Apr 2001 | Aug 2001 | 17 | 4.6% | +13.3% | +17386.9% |
| Sep 2001 | Dec 2001 | 17 | 24.2% | +58.7% | +17804.7% |
| Jun 2008 | Aug 2008 | 6 | 10.1% | +0.3% | +1060.8% |
| Sep 2008 | Sep 2009 | 50 | 55.1% | +9.7% | +1006.8% |
| Oct 2009 | Mar 2010 | 19 | 14.1% | +47.4% | +944.8% |
| May 2018 | Aug 2018 | 15 | 13.6% | +26.4% | +60.5% |
| Oct 2018 | Jan 2019 | 16 | 14.2% | -1.7% | +49.5% |
| Aug 2019 | Nov 2020 | 65 | 61.4% | -8.4% | +53.3% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 5 | 6.2% | +16.6% | +38.9% |
| Sep 2022 | Nov 2022 | 7 | 5.7% | +2.5% | +35.8% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 3 | 3.0% | +9.8% | +31.7% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 1 | 1.6% | +14.6% | +28.7% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 1 | 0.6% | -7.9% | +27.3% |
| Sep 2023 | Dec 2023 | 13 | 19.2% | -3.9% | +24.7% |
| Jan 2024 | Jan 2024 | 2 | 1.3% | -2.6% | +24.9% |
| Apr 2024 | Jan 2025 | 41 | 19.8% | -9.1% | +18.5% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 13 | 14.7% | -2.5% | +27.2% |
| Jul 2025 | Dec 2025 | 19 | 18.0% | N/A | +21.5% |
| Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | 3 | 8.4% | N/A | +26.8% |
| Apr 2026 | May 2026 | 1 | 1.2% | N/A | +24.0% |
| Average | 23 | — | +-2.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MIDD below its 200-week moving average?
No. The Middleby Corporation (MIDD) is currently 22.1% above its 200-week moving average of $141.03. It would need to fall to $141.03 to cross below the line.
What is MIDD's 200-week moving average price?
The Middleby Corporation's 200-week moving average is $141.03 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MIDD drops below its 200-week moving average?
MIDD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -2.6%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 23 weeks on average.
Is MIDD a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MIDD as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 63. Free cash flow yield is 7.0%. Return on equity is 12.0%. Price-to-book is 3.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MIDD compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in MIDD would have grown to $50186, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 20.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MIDD has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19