MGY
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation Energy - Oil & Gas E&P Investor Relations →
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) closed at $27.75 as of 2026-09-11, trading 20.9% above its 200-week moving average of $22.94. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 16.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 52, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 14 weeks, down-weeks have had more trading volume than up-weeks (0.52 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). That means when people are active, they're more often selling than buying. Sellers are still more in control than buyers.
Over the past 432 weeks of data, MGY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times. On average, these episodes lasted 10 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -5.8%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $6.7 billion, MGY is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.9%. Return on equity stands at 20.9%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 2.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.6% over the past three years. MGY passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 8.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MGY would have grown to $286, compared to $318 for the S&P 500. MGY has returned 13.4% annualized vs 14.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -21.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MGY vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MGY Crosses Below the Line?
Across 9 historical episodes, buying MGY when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -7.6% after 12 months (median -19.0%), compared to +19.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 43% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +40.2% vs +52.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MGY crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MGY would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MGY's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $21.90 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $23.21 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $24.69 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $26.36 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $28.28 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $0.94 | $0.99 | +5.2% |
| 2026-05-06 | $0.52 | $0.54 | +3.2% |
| 2026-02-05 | $0.36 | $0.38 | +4.5% |
| 2025-10-29 | $0.42 | $0.42 | +1.3% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MGY's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MGY has crossed below its 200-week MA 9 times with an average 1-year return of +-5.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 2.3% | +16.4% | +191.2% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 3 | 5.6% | -49.7% | +181.4% |
| Jul 2019 | Nov 2019 | 17 | 11.4% | -41.6% | +185.5% |
| Nov 2019 | Dec 2019 | 1 | 2.6% | -35.5% | +185.8% |
| Jan 2020 | Feb 2021 | 54 | 64.2% | -19.5% | +195.0% |
| Mar 2025 | May 2025 | 5 | 5.9% | +51.0% | +36.8% |
| May 2025 | Jun 2025 | 2 | 1.3% | +38.4% | +32.3% |
| Nov 2025 | Nov 2025 | 1 | 2.0% | N/A | +29.7% |
| Dec 2025 | Jan 2026 | 4 | 3.2% | N/A | +30.7% |
| Average | 10 | — | +-5.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MGY below its 200-week moving average?
No. Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) is currently 20.9% above its 200-week moving average of $22.94. It would need to fall to $22.94 to cross below the line.
What is MGY's 200-week moving average price?
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation's 200-week moving average is $22.94 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MGY drops below its 200-week moving average?
MGY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -5.8%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 10 weeks on average.
Is MGY a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MGY as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 52. Free cash flow yield is 4.9%. Return on equity is 20.9%. Price-to-book is 2.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MGY compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 8.3 years, $100 invested in MGY would have grown to $286, compared to $318 for the S&P 500. That's 13.4% annualized vs 14.9% for the index. MGY has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MGY pay a dividend?
Yes. Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 238.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11