MGY
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation Energy - Oil & Gas E&P Investor Relations →
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) closed at $30.76 as of 2026-03-20, trading 37.0% above its 200-week moving average of $22.46. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 31.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 86, MGY is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.93 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 407 weeks of data, MGY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times. On average, these episodes lasted 10 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -26.0%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $5.8 billion, MGY is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.9%. Return on equity stands at 17.0%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.6% over the past three years. MGY passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 7.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MGY would have grown to $312, compared to $270 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.7% vs 13.5% for the index — confirming MGY as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -21.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MGY vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MGY Crosses Below the Line?
Across 9 historical episodes, buying MGY when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -14.2% after 12 months (median -19.0%), compared to +18.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 33% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +40.2% vs +52.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MGY crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
MGY has crossed below its 200-week MA 9 times with an average 1-year return of +-26.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 2.3% | +16.4% | +218.6% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 3 | 5.6% | -49.7% | +207.9% |
| Jul 2019 | Nov 2019 | 17 | 11.4% | -41.6% | +212.4% |
| Nov 2019 | Dec 2019 | 1 | 2.6% | -35.5% | +212.7% |
| Jan 2020 | Feb 2021 | 54 | 64.2% | -19.5% | +222.8% |
| Mar 2025 | May 2025 | 5 | 5.8% | N/A | +49.6% |
| May 2025 | Jun 2025 | 2 | 1.2% | N/A | +44.7% |
| Nov 2025 | Nov 2025 | 1 | 2.0% | N/A | +41.9% |
| Dec 2025 | Jan 2026 | 4 | 3.2% | N/A | +43.0% |
| Average | 10 | — | +-26.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MGY below its 200-week moving average?
No. Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) is currently 37.0% above its 200-week moving average of $22.46. It would need to fall to $22.46 to cross below the line.
What is MGY's 200-week moving average price?
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation's 200-week moving average is $22.46 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MGY drops below its 200-week moving average?
MGY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -26.0%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 10 weeks on average.
Is MGY a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MGY as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 86 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 3.9%. Return on equity is 17.0%. Price-to-book is 2.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MGY compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 7.8 years, $100 invested in MGY would have grown to $312, compared to $270 for the S&P 500. That's 15.7% annualized vs 13.5% for the index. MGY has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MGY pay a dividend?
Yes. Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 200.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20