MGPI
MGP Ingredients, Inc. Consumer Defensive - Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries Investor Relations →
MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI) closed at $14.13 as of 2026-09-18, trading 75.8% below its 200-week moving average of $58.33. This places MGPI in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -74.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 33, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.96 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1930 weeks of data, MGPI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 52 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MGPI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.4%.
With a market cap of $303 million, MGPI is a small-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -33.8%. The stock trades at 0.5x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MGPI would have grown to $139, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. MGPI has returned 1.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 20.4% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MGPI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MGPI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying MGPI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +8.2% after 12 months (median -24.0%), compared to +11.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 27% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +34.7% vs +31.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MGPI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MGPI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MGPI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $2.24 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $3.69 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $10.31 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | N/A | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | N/A | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | $0.50 | $0.72 | +43.3% |
| 2026-04-29 | $0.04 | $0.15 | +316.7% |
| 2026-02-25 | $0.50 | $0.63 | +26.0% |
| 2025-10-29 | $0.60 | $0.85 | +40.9% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MGPI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MGPI has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +17.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1990 | Nov 1990 | 41 | 28.9% | -7.7% | +155.7% |
| Dec 1990 | Dec 1990 | 1 | 0.8% | +47.8% | +179.1% |
| Jan 1991 | Jan 1991 | 1 | 0.1% | +47.5% | +177.0% |
| Dec 1994 | Jun 2001 | 339 | 52.5% | -35.1% | +63.9% |
| Jul 2001 | Oct 2001 | 11 | 16.0% | +20.8% | +252.5% |
| Aug 2002 | Jun 2003 | 45 | 34.6% | -18.1% | +258.9% |
| Jul 2003 | Oct 2003 | 14 | 14.5% | +317.1% | +313.1% |
| Sep 2007 | Sep 2010 | 159 | 95.6% | -65.4% | +25.6% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 2 | 3.6% | -41.9% | +181.0% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 3 | 20.8% | -34.9% | +182.6% |
| Oct 2011 | Jan 2012 | 12 | 21.3% | -39.5% | +178.2% |
| Feb 2012 | Mar 2012 | 1 | 2.1% | -24.9% | +191.2% |
| Mar 2012 | Mar 2014 | 101 | 43.2% | -18.4% | +198.5% |
| Apr 2014 | May 2014 | 2 | 2.3% | +163.9% | +180.1% |
| Aug 2019 | Feb 2021 | 78 | 58.9% | -30.2% | -70.3% |
| Jul 2021 | Aug 2021 | 1 | 0.1% | +77.4% | -74.9% |
| Apr 2024 | Aug 2024 | 18 | 11.8% | -63.2% | -81.0% |
| Sep 2024 | Ongoing | 106+ | 76.4% | Ongoing | -82.7% |
| Average | 52 | — | +17.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MGPI below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI) is trading 75.8% below its 200-week moving average of $58.33. The current price is $14.13.
What is MGPI's 200-week moving average price?
MGP Ingredients, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $58.33 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MGPI drops below its 200-week moving average?
MGPI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +17.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 52 weeks on average.
Is MGPI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MGPI as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 33. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is -33.8%. Price-to-book is 0.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MGPI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in MGPI would have grown to $139, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 1.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MGPI has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MGPI pay a dividend?
Yes. MGP Ingredients, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 334.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18