MGM
MGM Resorts International Consumer Discretionary - Casinos Investor Relations →
MGM Resorts International (MGM) closed at $46.84 as of 2026-06-19, trading 22.2% above its 200-week moving average of $38.33. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 28.0% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 72, MGM is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.90 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1941 weeks of data, MGM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 33 times. On average, these episodes lasted 17 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MGM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +23.1%.
With a market cap of $12.0 billion, MGM is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.4%. Return on equity stands at 13.5%. The stock trades at 4.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 31.9% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MGM would have grown to $742, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. MGM has returned 6.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 2 open-market purchases totaling $77,108,052.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 13.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MGM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MGM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 28 historical episodes, buying MGM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +16.0% after 12 months (median +24.0%), compared to +12.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 69% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +54.9% vs +36.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MGM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MGM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MGM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $32.61 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $34.79 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $37.29 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $40.18 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $43.55 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MGM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MGM has crossed below its 200-week MA 33 times with an average 1-year return of +23.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1989 | May 1989 | 4 | 0.9% | +23.8% | +1799.9% |
| Feb 1990 | Feb 1990 | 1 | 2.3% | -12.6% | +1449.4% |
| Apr 1990 | Apr 1990 | 2 | 1.7% | +8.7% | +1434.5% |
| Aug 1990 | Mar 1991 | 33 | 25.4% | -3.0% | +1512.0% |
| Jun 1991 | Oct 1991 | 15 | 9.3% | -2.9% | +1434.5% |
| Oct 1991 | Jun 1992 | 32 | 21.3% | +53.1% | +1562.4% |
| Jun 1992 | Jun 1992 | 1 | 1.8% | +152.5% | +1480.1% |
| Jul 1995 | Aug 1995 | 3 | 1.4% | +64.0% | +698.0% |
| Aug 1995 | Sep 1995 | 2 | 2.1% | +51.5% | +698.0% |
| Sep 1995 | Jan 1996 | 14 | 13.4% | +69.6% | +682.3% |
| Apr 1997 | Apr 1997 | 1 | 0.8% | +4.8% | +513.8% |
| May 1998 | Feb 1999 | 38 | 30.1% | +26.6% | +501.1% |
| Mar 1999 | Apr 1999 | 1 | 2.3% | +44.4% | +498.8% |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2000 | 1 | 0.5% | +38.6% | +423.7% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 2 | 22.7% | +95.2% | +451.3% |
| Oct 2001 | Nov 2001 | 3 | 4.0% | +49.2% | +339.3% |
| Jan 2003 | Mar 2003 | 9 | 13.8% | +46.1% | +262.4% |
| Mar 2003 | Jun 2003 | 9 | 9.2% | +59.6% | +238.5% |
| Apr 2008 | May 2008 | 1 | 1.7% | -84.1% | N/A |
| May 2008 | Feb 2012 | 194 | 95.9% | -83.9% | +5.1% |
| Feb 2012 | Feb 2012 | 1 | 0.1% | -11.3% | +254.2% |
| Apr 2012 | Dec 2012 | 32 | 17.4% | +17.6% | +297.7% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 3 | 4.1% | +61.4% | +177.4% |
| Oct 2018 | Jan 2019 | 11 | 14.2% | +15.0% | +93.8% |
| Mar 2019 | Apr 2019 | 3 | 2.9% | -39.9% | +84.0% |
| Apr 2019 | Jun 2019 | 6 | 7.4% | -41.0% | +84.2% |
| Feb 2020 | Nov 2020 | 39 | 67.5% | +55.1% | +92.3% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 6 | 9.5% | +52.6% | +67.6% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 4 | 5.2% | +21.6% | +55.9% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 2.0% | +17.9% | +36.8% |
| Jul 2024 | Oct 2024 | 11 | 11.8% | +0.8% | +32.0% |
| Oct 2024 | Apr 2026 | 76 | 32.4% | -12.0% | +28.6% |
| May 2026 | May 2026 | 1 | 2.8% | N/A | +26.7% |
| Average | 17 | — | +23.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MGM below its 200-week moving average?
No. MGM Resorts International (MGM) is currently 22.2% above its 200-week moving average of $38.33. It would need to fall to $38.33 to cross below the line.
What is MGM's 200-week moving average price?
MGM Resorts International's 200-week moving average is $38.33 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MGM drops below its 200-week moving average?
MGM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 33 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +23.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 17 weeks on average.
Is MGM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MGM as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 72 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 4.4%. Return on equity is 13.5%. Price-to-book is 4.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MGM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in MGM would have grown to $742, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 6.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MGM has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19