MGEE
MGE Energy, Inc. Utilities - Utilities - Regulated Electric Investor Relations →
MGE Energy, Inc. (MGEE) closed at $75.92 as of 2026-06-19, trading 0.9% below its 200-week moving average of $76.63. This places MGEE in the below line zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 1.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 53, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 14 weeks, down-weeks have had more trading volume than up-weeks (0.69 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). That means when people are active, they're more often selling than buying. Sellers are still more in control than buyers.
Over the past 2365 weeks of data, MGEE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 30 times. On average, these episodes lasted 4 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MGEE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +19.1%.
With a market cap of $2.9 billion, MGEE is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 10.9%. The stock trades at 2.1x book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MGEE would have grown to $1946, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. MGEE has returned 9.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MGEE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MGEE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 27 historical episodes, buying MGEE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +15.2% after 12 months (median +17.0%), compared to +23.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 88% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +29.4% vs +32.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MGEE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. MGEE currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MGEE's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MGEE has crossed below its 200-week MA 30 times with an average 1-year return of +19.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Jun 1981 | 16 | 11.1% | +12.4% | +10968.1% |
| Aug 1982 | Aug 1982 | 1 | 2.7% | +33.3% | +10369.9% |
| Oct 1996 | Nov 1996 | 1 | 1.1% | +7.0% | +1583.3% |
| Jan 1997 | Jan 1997 | 2 | 1.6% | +19.6% | +1579.2% |
| Mar 1997 | Apr 1997 | 6 | 2.1% | +21.4% | +1575.7% |
| Feb 1999 | Feb 1999 | 1 | 12.4% | +8.7% | +1603.8% |
| Mar 1999 | Apr 1999 | 1 | 1.8% | -0.4% | +1412.0% |
| Apr 1999 | May 1999 | 4 | 4.6% | -2.1% | +1402.2% |
| Dec 1999 | Dec 1999 | 1 | 3.0% | +21.4% | +1388.1% |
| Jan 2000 | May 2000 | 18 | 8.0% | +24.3% | +1358.7% |
| May 2006 | May 2006 | 1 | 0.3% | +28.1% | +589.7% |
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | 2 | 4.5% | +20.7% | +545.3% |
| Mar 2008 | Mar 2008 | 1 | 0.5% | -4.6% | +505.6% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 1 | 1.1% | +23.7% | +488.1% |
| Jan 2009 | Jan 2009 | 1 | 0.5% | +12.9% | +480.3% |
| Feb 2009 | Mar 2009 | 5 | 9.3% | +19.2% | +500.4% |
| Apr 2009 | May 2009 | 6 | 4.5% | +21.5% | +480.1% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 2 | 0.9% | +17.9% | +39.5% |
| Apr 2020 | May 2020 | 3 | 5.3% | +22.4% | +39.2% |
| Jun 2020 | Jun 2020 | 2 | 1.8% | +21.6% | +39.5% |
| Sep 2020 | Sep 2020 | 3 | 3.8% | +28.9% | +36.6% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 0.7% | +22.5% | +34.4% |
| Feb 2021 | Mar 2021 | 1 | 0.8% | +17.2% | +34.4% |
| Sep 2022 | Nov 2022 | 7 | 10.1% | +6.8% | +25.8% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 1 | 0.7% | +19.0% | +17.3% |
| Sep 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 2.7% | +36.0% | +17.8% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 0.4% | +36.0% | +15.0% |
| Jan 2024 | Mar 2024 | 7 | 10.1% | +38.6% | +16.0% |
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | 3 | 3.5% | N/A | +2.2% |
| May 2026 | Ongoing | 7+ | 4.4% | Ongoing | +3.7% |
| Average | 4 | — | +19.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MGEE below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, MGE Energy, Inc. (MGEE) is trading 0.9% below its 200-week moving average of $76.63. The current price is $75.92.
What is MGEE's 200-week moving average price?
MGE Energy, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $76.63 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MGEE drops below its 200-week moving average?
MGEE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 30 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +19.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 4 weeks on average.
Is MGEE a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MGEE as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 53. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 10.9%. Price-to-book is 2.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MGEE compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in MGEE would have grown to $1946, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 9.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MGEE has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19