MFC
Manulife Financial Financial Services Investor Relations →
Manulife Financial (MFC) closed at $43.67 as of 2026-07-24, trading 70.6% above its 200-week moving average of $25.59. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 70.5% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 74, MFC is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.87 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1352 weeks of data, MFC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 33 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MFC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +34.6%.
With a market cap of $72.7 billion, MFC is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.5%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 12.6%. The stock trades at 2.1x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 10.1% over the past three years.
Over the past 26 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MFC would have grown to $1013, compared to $770 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 9.3% vs 8.2% for the index — confirming MFC as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 24.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MFC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MFC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying MFC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +38.6% after 12 months (median +43.0%), compared to +23.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 90% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +67.8% vs +44.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MFC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MFC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MFC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $31.63 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $33.87 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $36.44 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $39.43 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $42.97 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MFC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MFC has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +34.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2002 | Oct 2002 | 4 | 16.6% | +61.7% | +908.9% |
| Oct 2002 | Nov 2002 | 1 | 1.9% | +44.7% | +843.4% |
| Dec 2002 | Dec 2002 | 1 | 0.5% | +50.8% | +827.2% |
| Oct 2008 | Dec 2012 | 221 | 74.9% | -3.0% | +278.4% |
| Apr 2013 | Apr 2013 | 3 | 1.6% | +43.6% | +434.8% |
| Dec 2015 | Nov 2016 | 48 | 24.7% | +29.7% | +360.1% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 3 | 5.5% | +20.7% | +294.4% |
| Dec 2018 | Feb 2019 | 10 | 15.2% | +31.9% | +303.6% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 37 | 43.1% | +39.3% | +262.1% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 5 | 3.5% | +26.8% | +222.1% |
| Average | 33 | — | +34.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MFC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Manulife Financial (MFC) is currently 70.6% above its 200-week moving average of $25.59. It would need to fall to $25.59 to cross below the line.
What is MFC's 200-week moving average price?
Manulife Financial's 200-week moving average is $25.59 as of 2026-07-24. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MFC drops below its 200-week moving average?
MFC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +34.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 33 weeks on average.
Is MFC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MFC as of 2026-07-24: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 74 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 7.5%. Return on equity is 12.6%. Price-to-book is 2.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MFC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 26 years, $100 invested in MFC would have grown to $1013, compared to $770 for the S&P 500. That's 9.3% annualized vs 8.2% for the index. MFC has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MFC pay a dividend?
Yes. Manulife Financial currently pays a dividend yield of 310.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-24