MFC
Manulife Financial Financial Services Investor Relations →
Manulife Financial (MFC) closed at $43.49 as of 2026-09-11, trading 64.6% above its 200-week moving average of $26.42. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 68.7% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 74, MFC is in overbought territory.
Over the past 14 weeks, down-weeks have had more trading volume than up-weeks (0.54 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). That means when people are active, they're more often selling than buying. Sellers are still more in control than buyers.
Over the past 1359 weeks of data, MFC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 33 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MFC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +34.6%.
With a market cap of $72.2 billion, MFC is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.1%. Return on equity stands at 13.3%. The stock trades at 2.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 10.1% over the past three years.
Over the past 26.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MFC would have grown to $1018, compared to $797 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 9.3% vs 8.3% for the index — confirming MFC as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 24.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MFC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MFC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying MFC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +38.6% after 12 months (median +43.0%), compared to +23.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 90% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +67.8% vs +44.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MFC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MFC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MFC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $41.00 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $42.92 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $45.04 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $47.38 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $49.97 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $1.08 | $1.09 | +0.9% |
| 2026-05-13 | $1.09 | $1.06 | -3.0% |
| 2026-02-11 | $1.06 | $1.12 | +5.2% |
| 2025-11-12 | $1.07 | $1.02 | -4.4% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MFC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MFC has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +34.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2002 | Oct 2002 | 4 | 16.6% | +61.7% | +913.1% |
| Oct 2002 | Nov 2002 | 1 | 1.9% | +44.7% | +847.4% |
| Dec 2002 | Dec 2002 | 1 | 0.5% | +50.8% | +831.1% |
| Oct 2008 | Dec 2012 | 221 | 74.9% | -3.0% | +280.0% |
| Apr 2013 | Apr 2013 | 3 | 1.6% | +43.6% | +437.0% |
| Dec 2015 | Nov 2016 | 48 | 24.7% | +29.7% | +362.0% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 3 | 5.5% | +20.7% | +296.1% |
| Dec 2018 | Feb 2019 | 10 | 15.2% | +31.9% | +305.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 37 | 43.1% | +39.3% | +263.6% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 5 | 3.5% | +26.8% | +223.5% |
| Average | 33 | — | +34.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MFC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Manulife Financial (MFC) is currently 64.6% above its 200-week moving average of $26.42. It would need to fall to $26.42 to cross below the line.
What is MFC's 200-week moving average price?
Manulife Financial's 200-week moving average is $26.42 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MFC drops below its 200-week moving average?
MFC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +34.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 33 weeks on average.
Is MFC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MFC as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 74 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 2.1%. Return on equity is 13.3%. Price-to-book is 2.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MFC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 26.2 years, $100 invested in MFC would have grown to $1018, compared to $797 for the S&P 500. That's 9.3% annualized vs 8.3% for the index. MFC has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MFC pay a dividend?
Yes. Manulife Financial currently pays a dividend yield of 315.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11