MFA
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MFA Financial, Inc. (MFA) closed at $8.36 as of 2026-09-18, trading 4.0% above its 200-week moving average of $8.04. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 6.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 32, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.14 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1435 weeks of data, MFA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times. On average, these episodes lasted 17 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MFA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +16.4%.
With a market cap of $845 million, MFA is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 8.2%. The stock trades at 0.5x book value.
Over the past 27.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MFA would have grown to $1090, compared to $957 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 9.0% vs 8.5% for the index — confirming MFA as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -40.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MFA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MFA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying MFA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +28.6% after 12 months (median +20.0%), compared to +3.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 71% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +52.2% vs +4.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MFA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MFA would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MFA's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $8.57 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $8.91 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $9.27 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $9.67 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $10.11 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $0.25 | $0.35 | +42.3% |
| 2026-05-05 | $0.30 | $0.34 | +12.3% |
| 2026-02-18 | $0.26 | $0.42 | +64.5% |
| 2025-11-06 | $0.27 | $0.20 | -27.2% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MFA's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MFA has crossed below its 200-week MA 21 times with an average 1-year return of +16.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1999 | Nov 1999 | 32 | 24.4% | +33.4% | +1005.8% |
| Nov 1999 | Feb 2000 | 11 | 10.9% | +35.6% | +933.5% |
| Apr 2000 | Apr 2000 | 1 | 0.6% | +64.3% | +823.0% |
| Apr 2005 | Jun 2005 | 9 | 4.8% | -9.0% | +247.0% |
| Jun 2005 | Sep 2006 | 64 | 25.1% | -0.2% | +241.2% |
| Feb 2007 | Feb 2007 | 1 | 1.5% | +60.2% | +222.7% |
| Feb 2007 | Mar 2007 | 3 | 2.8% | +40.0% | +220.0% |
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | 3 | 0.8% | +1.6% | +222.5% |
| Mar 2008 | Apr 2008 | 5 | 15.9% | +14.4% | +272.9% |
| Jun 2008 | Aug 2008 | 11 | 5.6% | +13.6% | +217.3% |
| Sep 2008 | Nov 2008 | 9 | 23.2% | +53.3% | +238.2% |
| Dec 2008 | Mar 2009 | 16 | 10.2% | +56.2% | +248.9% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 2 | 4.6% | +41.1% | +23.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Aug 2021 | 76 | 80.6% | -18.0% | -17.7% |
| Sep 2021 | Sep 2021 | 2 | 1.4% | -33.7% | -9.9% |
| Oct 2021 | Dec 2021 | 8 | 2.4% | -36.2% | -10.5% |
| Jan 2022 | Jan 2022 | 1 | 0.1% | -24.6% | -10.4% |
| Feb 2022 | Nov 2023 | 94 | 49.1% | -25.4% | -9.1% |
| Jan 2025 | Jan 2025 | 1 | 2.7% | +17.8% | +9.6% |
| Apr 2025 | Apr 2025 | 2 | 13.6% | +42.4% | +23.7% |
| May 2025 | Jun 2025 | 2 | 1.0% | +17.9% | +8.2% |
| Average | 17 | — | +16.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MFA below its 200-week moving average?
No. MFA Financial, Inc. (MFA) is currently 4.0% above its 200-week moving average of $8.04. It would need to fall to $8.04 to cross below the line.
What is MFA's 200-week moving average price?
MFA Financial, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $8.04 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MFA drops below its 200-week moving average?
MFA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +16.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 17 weeks on average.
Is MFA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MFA as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 32. Return on equity is 8.2%. Price-to-book is 0.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MFA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 27.6 years, $100 invested in MFA would have grown to $1090, compared to $957 for the S&P 500. That's 9.0% annualized vs 8.5% for the index. MFA has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MFA pay a dividend?
Yes. MFA Financial, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 1694.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18