MFA
MFA Financial, Inc. Real Estate - REIT - Mortgage Investor Relations →
MFA Financial, Inc. (MFA) closed at $10.39 as of 2026-05-01, trading 29.7% above its 200-week moving average of $8.01. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 27.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 64, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.84 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1415 weeks of data, MFA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MFA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.0%.
With a market cap of $1061 million, MFA is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 9.6%. The stock trades at 0.6x book value.
Over the past 27.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MFA would have grown to $1380, compared to $901 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 10.1% vs 8.4% for the index — confirming MFA as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -40.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MFA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MFA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 23 historical episodes, buying MFA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +25.9% after 12 months (median +18.0%), compared to +0.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 68% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +50.2% vs +2.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MFA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
MFA has crossed below its 200-week MA 23 times with an average 1-year return of +11.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1999 | Nov 1999 | 32 | 24.2% | +33.4% | +1224.1% |
| Nov 1999 | Feb 2000 | 11 | 10.7% | +35.6% | +1137.6% |
| Apr 2000 | Apr 2000 | 1 | 0.3% | +64.3% | +1005.3% |
| Apr 2005 | Jun 2005 | 9 | 4.9% | -6.7% | +326.0% |
| Jun 2005 | Sep 2006 | 64 | 25.0% | -0.2% | +308.6% |
| Feb 2007 | Feb 2007 | 1 | 1.3% | +60.2% | +286.4% |
| Feb 2007 | Mar 2007 | 3 | 2.7% | +40.0% | +283.2% |
| Jul 2007 | Jul 2007 | 1 | 0.2% | -4.5% | +283.9% |
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | 3 | 0.7% | +1.6% | +286.2% |
| Mar 2008 | Apr 2008 | 5 | 15.8% | +14.4% | +346.5% |
| Jun 2008 | Aug 2008 | 11 | 6.2% | +13.6% | +279.9% |
| Sep 2008 | Nov 2008 | 9 | 23.1% | +53.3% | +305.0% |
| Dec 2008 | Mar 2009 | 16 | 10.1% | +56.2% | +317.9% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 2 | 4.3% | +41.1% | +47.6% |
| Mar 2020 | Aug 2021 | 76 | 82.7% | -18.0% | -1.5% |
| Sep 2021 | Sep 2021 | 1 | 1.2% | -33.7% | +7.9% |
| Sep 2021 | Oct 2021 | 1 | 0.3% | -52.9% | +7.2% |
| Oct 2021 | Nov 2021 | 1 | 0.2% | -36.2% | +7.2% |
| Nov 2021 | Dec 2021 | 5 | 2.2% | -29.7% | +9.7% |
| Feb 2022 | Nov 2023 | 94 | 49.6% | -25.4% | +8.8% |
| Jan 2025 | Jan 2025 | 1 | 2.5% | +17.8% | +31.2% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 13.4% | +17.6% | +30.8% |
| May 2025 | Jun 2025 | 2 | 0.8% | N/A | +29.6% |
| Average | 15 | — | +11.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MFA below its 200-week moving average?
No. MFA Financial, Inc. (MFA) is currently 29.7% above its 200-week moving average of $8.01. It would need to fall to $8.01 to cross below the line.
What is MFA's 200-week moving average price?
MFA Financial, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $8.01 as of 2026-05-01. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MFA drops below its 200-week moving average?
MFA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 15 weeks on average.
Is MFA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MFA as of 2026-05-01: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 64. Return on equity is 9.6%. Price-to-book is 0.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MFA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 27.2 years, $100 invested in MFA would have grown to $1380, compared to $901 for the S&P 500. That's 10.1% annualized vs 8.4% for the index. MFA has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MFA pay a dividend?
Yes. MFA Financial, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 1386.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-01