MFA
MFA Financial, Inc. Real Estate - REIT - Mortgage Investor Relations →
MFA Financial, Inc. (MFA) closed at $9.74 as of 2026-02-02, trading 19.1% above its 200-week moving average of $8.18. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 17.9% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 70, MFA is in overbought territory.
Over the past 1403 weeks of data, MFA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MFA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +10.7%.
With a market cap of $1000 million, MFA is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 6.9%. The stock trades at 0.6x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.6% over the past three years.
Over the past 27 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MFA would have grown to $1245, compared to $863 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 9.8% vs 8.3% for the index — confirming MFA as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 13.2% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Growth of $100: MFA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MFA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 23 historical episodes, buying MFA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +26.2% after 12 months (median +7.0%), compared to -0.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +50.2% vs +2.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MFA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
MFA has crossed below its 200-week MA 23 times with an average 1-year return of +10.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1999 | Nov 1999 | 32 | 24.2% | +33.4% | +1094.9% |
| Nov 1999 | Feb 2000 | 11 | 10.7% | +35.6% | +1016.9% |
| Apr 2000 | Apr 2000 | 1 | 0.3% | +64.3% | +897.5% |
| Apr 2005 | Jun 2005 | 9 | 4.9% | -6.7% | +284.5% |
| Jun 2005 | Sep 2006 | 64 | 25.0% | -0.2% | +268.8% |
| Feb 2007 | Feb 2007 | 1 | 1.3% | +60.2% | +248.7% |
| Feb 2007 | Mar 2007 | 3 | 2.7% | +40.0% | +245.8% |
| Jul 2007 | Jul 2007 | 1 | 0.2% | -4.5% | +246.5% |
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | 3 | 0.7% | +1.6% | +248.5% |
| Mar 2008 | Apr 2008 | 5 | 15.8% | +14.4% | +302.9% |
| Jun 2008 | Aug 2008 | 11 | 6.2% | +13.6% | +242.9% |
| Sep 2008 | Nov 2008 | 9 | 23.1% | +53.3% | +265.5% |
| Dec 2008 | Mar 2009 | 16 | 10.1% | +56.2% | +277.1% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 2 | 4.3% | +41.1% | +33.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Aug 2021 | 76 | 82.7% | -18.0% | -11.1% |
| Sep 2021 | Sep 2021 | 1 | 1.2% | -33.7% | -2.6% |
| Sep 2021 | Oct 2021 | 1 | 0.3% | -52.9% | -3.3% |
| Oct 2021 | Nov 2021 | 1 | 0.2% | -36.2% | -3.2% |
| Nov 2021 | Dec 2021 | 5 | 2.2% | -29.7% | -1.0% |
| Feb 2022 | Nov 2023 | 94 | 49.6% | -25.4% | -1.8% |
| Jan 2025 | Jan 2025 | 1 | 2.5% | +17.8% | +18.4% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 13.4% | N/A | +18.0% |
| May 2025 | Jun 2025 | 2 | 0.8% | N/A | +16.9% |
| Average | 15 | — | +10.7% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02