META
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Meta Platforms Inc. (META) closed at $665.75 as of 2026-09-18, trading 35.0% above its 200-week moving average of $493.11. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 32.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 61, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.16 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 700 weeks of data, META has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought META at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +68.3%.
With a market cap of $1.7 trillion, META is a mega-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.3%. Return on equity stands at 29.8%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 6.5x book value.
Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 3.2% reduction over three years. META passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 13.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in META would have grown to $2372, compared to $600 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 26.4% vs 14.2% for the index — confirming META as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 33.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: META vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After META Crosses Below the Line?
Across 5 historical episodes, buying META when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +68.2% after 12 months (median +51.0%), compared to +23.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +123.8% vs +45.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment META crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices META would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where META's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $539.58 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $575.49 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $616.53 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $663.86 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $719.07 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | $7.22 | $6.18 | -14.4% |
| 2026-04-29 | $6.82 | $7.31 | +7.2% |
| 2026-01-28 | $8.22 | $8.88 | +8.0% |
| 2025-10-29 | $6.67 | $7.25 | +8.7% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from META's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
META has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +68.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2013 | Jul 2013 | 7 | 10.2% | +152.4% | +2662.6% |
| Nov 2018 | Nov 2018 | 1 | 1.8% | +50.9% | +409.8% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 7.7% | +65.1% | +437.5% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 8.7% | +93.8% | +348.5% |
| Feb 2022 | May 2023 | 65 | 61.2% | -20.7% | +205.9% |
| Average | 16 | — | +68.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is META below its 200-week moving average?
No. Meta Platforms Inc. (META) is currently 35.0% above its 200-week moving average of $493.11. It would need to fall to $493.11 to cross below the line.
What is META's 200-week moving average price?
Meta Platforms Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $493.11 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when META drops below its 200-week moving average?
META has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +68.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is META a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about META as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 61. Free cash flow yield is 1.3%. Return on equity is 29.8%. Price-to-book is 6.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does META compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 13.5 years, $100 invested in META would have grown to $2372, compared to $600 for the S&P 500. That's 26.4% annualized vs 14.2% for the index. META has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does META pay a dividend?
Yes. Meta Platforms Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 32.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18