MET

MetLife Inc. Financial Services - Insurance Investor Relations →

NO
24.6% ABOVE
↓ Approaching Was 29.6% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $68.68
14-Week RSI 77
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 1.4x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 1.00

MetLife Inc. (MET) closed at $85.58 as of 2026-06-19, trading 24.6% above its 200-week moving average of $68.68. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 29.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 77, MET is in overbought territory.

Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.00 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 1319 weeks of data, MET has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MET at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +13.0%.

With a market cap of $55.1 billion, MET is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 13.0%. The stock trades at 2.0x book value.

The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 15.9% over the past three years.

Over the past 25.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MET would have grown to $584, compared to $1011 for the S&P 500. MET has returned 7.2% annualized vs 9.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.

Free cash flow has been growing at a 9.4% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: MET vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After MET Crosses Below the Line?

Across 27 historical episodes, buying MET when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +11.3% after 12 months (median +21.0%), compared to +11.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 69% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +32.2% vs +30.7% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MET crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MET would reach each dislocation threshold.

Current Bean Score -1.55σ
Current FCF Yield 28.54%
Baseline Yield 34.36%
Historical σ 3.77pp

Dislocation Price Levels

Prices where MET's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).

LevelσPriceSignal
Deep Value+2σ$57.50Unusually cheap — potential buy zone
Value+1σ$63.18Cheap vs. own history
Fair Value+0σ$70.11Historical mean behavior
Expensive-1σ$78.75Expensive vs. own history
Deep Expensive-2σ$89.81Unusually expensive — potential trim zone

Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end

Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 22 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

11 / 13 weeks minimum

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

Dislocation Scores Experimental

Each score measures deviation from MET's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.

Yield Dislocation -1.29σ Dividend yield vs own 10-yr norm
Drawdown Score -0.46σ Distance from line vs own history
Sector-Relative +0.05σ Vs sector median this week
Buyback Acceleration +0.7pp YoY share change vs own 3-yr pace (− = accelerating)
Insider Intensity N/A TTM buys / market cap, percentile of buyers
FCF Yield vs History -60.8pp Vs own recent annual mean
Earnings Quality Improving Accrual gap trend (-3.5pp of revenue)

Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.

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Historical Touches

MET has crossed below its 200-week MA 27 times with an average 1-year return of +13.0% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Sep 2001Sep 200116.3%-5.8%+596.8%
Oct 2001Oct 200124.8%-15.1%+554.0%
Jul 2002Dec 20022224.5%+5.8%+528.9%
Dec 2002Dec 200210.6%+22.8%+536.4%
Jan 2003Mar 2003106.4%+25.2%+533.6%
May 2003May 200332.0%+25.8%+545.7%
Jul 2003Aug 200310.1%+31.4%+532.0%
Jul 2008Aug 200844.1%-45.3%+221.6%
Aug 2008Aug 200811.0%-24.6%+211.3%
Sep 2008Dec 201011676.3%-13.5%+289.7%
May 2011Jun 201143.8%-31.9%+269.9%
Jul 2011Feb 20123133.3%-24.1%+271.7%
Apr 2012Sep 20122122.1%+6.0%+324.3%
Sep 2012Dec 2012159.3%+41.5%+333.7%
Feb 2013Mar 201310.1%+46.9%+317.1%
Apr 2013Apr 201310.2%+47.3%+313.8%
Jan 2016Jan 201624.6%+33.6%+225.9%
Feb 2016Mar 2016514.7%+38.3%+253.0%
Mar 2016Apr 201635.6%+27.3%+221.0%
May 2016May 201623.9%+26.6%+215.6%
May 2016Oct 20161812.7%+20.0%+203.7%
Oct 2018Oct 201817.3%+21.6%+181.4%
Dec 2018Jan 201958.9%+26.4%+171.4%
Mar 2019Mar 201911.0%-39.5%+161.4%
Feb 2020Nov 20203743.5%+41.4%+146.5%
May 2023May 202335.3%+49.9%+88.4%
Mar 2026Mar 202610.1%N/A+27.4%
Average12+13.0%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is MET below its 200-week moving average?

No. MetLife Inc. (MET) is currently 24.6% above its 200-week moving average of $68.68. It would need to fall to $68.68 to cross below the line.

What is MET's 200-week moving average price?

MetLife Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $68.68 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when MET drops below its 200-week moving average?

MET has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +13.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 12 weeks on average.

Is MET a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about MET as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 77 (overbought). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 13.0%. Price-to-book is 2.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does MET compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 25.3 years, $100 invested in MET would have grown to $584, compared to $1011 for the S&P 500. That's 7.2% annualized vs 9.6% for the index. MET has underperformed the broader market over this period.

Does MET pay a dividend?

Yes. MetLife Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 271.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-06-19