MERC
Mercer International Inc. Materials - Pulp & Paper Investor Relations →
Mercer International Inc. (MERC) closed at $0.63 as of 2026-07-31, trading 89.8% below its 200-week moving average of $6.22. This places MERC in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -89.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 28, MERC is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.94 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1936 weeks of data, MERC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 34 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MERC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +5.9%.
With a market cap of $42 million, MERC is a small-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -244.3%. The stock trades at -7.6x book value.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MERC would have grown to $12, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. MERC has returned -6.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MERC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MERC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 27 historical episodes, buying MERC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +4.5% after 12 months (median +7.0%), compared to +3.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 52% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +8.6% vs +19.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MERC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MERC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MERC has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +5.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1990 | Feb 1992 | 93 | 67.3% | +10.9% | -76.3% |
| Jun 1996 | May 2000 | 203 | 64.4% | -30.4% | -93.4% |
| Sep 2000 | Dec 2000 | 12 | 24.8% | -0.2% | -87.7% |
| Jan 2001 | Jan 2001 | 1 | 10.6% | +9.3% | -86.7% |
| Feb 2001 | Jul 2001 | 24 | 16.7% | -17.4% | -88.0% |
| Sep 2001 | Dec 2001 | 14 | 18.9% | -12.2% | -86.1% |
| Jan 2002 | Apr 2002 | 11 | 12.2% | -22.0% | -86.9% |
| Apr 2002 | Apr 2002 | 1 | 3.6% | -27.6% | -86.2% |
| Jul 2002 | Jan 2004 | 78 | 32.9% | -25.1% | -86.3% |
| May 2005 | May 2005 | 1 | 1.1% | +22.4% | -87.0% |
| Jul 2005 | Jul 2005 | 3 | 2.4% | +22.1% | -86.7% |
| Dec 2005 | Dec 2005 | 1 | 0.1% | +58.1% | -87.2% |
| Jul 2007 | Sep 2007 | 8 | 13.4% | -28.8% | -89.4% |
| Oct 2007 | Nov 2010 | 159 | 96.2% | -80.2% | -89.7% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 1.5% | +25.8% | -82.8% |
| Jul 2012 | Aug 2012 | 2 | 4.0% | +30.7% | -82.3% |
| Apr 2013 | Sep 2013 | 21 | 5.4% | +19.2% | -85.6% |
| Mar 2014 | Apr 2014 | 5 | 3.7% | +90.8% | -87.6% |
| Dec 2015 | Apr 2016 | 17 | 26.1% | +26.5% | -89.6% |
| Apr 2016 | Nov 2016 | 29 | 15.1% | +52.5% | -89.3% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 3 | 13.0% | +32.4% | -91.7% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 2 | 2.8% | -24.2% | -93.0% |
| Oct 2019 | Oct 2019 | 1 | 1.4% | -35.6% | -93.1% |
| Jan 2020 | Jan 2021 | 49 | 45.1% | +7.4% | -93.0% |
| Jul 2021 | Sep 2021 | 10 | 5.4% | +22.1% | -93.8% |
| Oct 2021 | Dec 2021 | 11 | 11.5% | +20.3% | -93.7% |
| Jan 2022 | Jan 2022 | 2 | 3.1% | +11.4% | -93.7% |
| Feb 2023 | Ongoing | 182+ | 90.0% | Ongoing | -93.8% |
| Average | 34 | — | +5.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MERC below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, Mercer International Inc. (MERC) is trading 89.8% below its 200-week moving average of $6.22. The current price is $0.63.
What is MERC's 200-week moving average price?
Mercer International Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $6.22 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MERC drops below its 200-week moving average?
MERC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +5.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 34 weeks on average.
Is MERC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MERC as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 28 (oversold). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is -244.3%. Price-to-book is -7.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MERC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in MERC would have grown to $12, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's -6.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MERC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31