MDU
MDU Resources Group, Inc. Utilities - Utilities - Regulated Gas Investor Relations →
MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU) closed at $18.56 as of 2026-09-18, trading 25.4% above its 200-week moving average of $14.80. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 30.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 31, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.4x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 2747 weeks of data, MDU has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MDU at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.2%.
With a market cap of $3.9 billion, MDU is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 6.9%. The stock trades at 1.3x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MDU would have grown to $2854, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. MDU has returned 10.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MDU vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MDU Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying MDU when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +23.1% after 12 months (median +17.0%), compared to +11.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 85% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +49.2% vs +30.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MDU crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. MDU currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | $0.09 | $0.09 | +3.3% |
| 2026-05-07 | $0.40 | $0.39 | -2.4% |
| 2026-02-05 | $0.36 | $0.37 | +2.7% |
| 2025-11-06 | $0.11 | $0.09 | -15.9% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MDU's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MDU has crossed below its 200-week MA 34 times with an average 1-year return of +21.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1974 | Feb 1974 | 2 | 2.2% | -9.1% | +14042.0% |
| Mar 1974 | Jan 1976 | 96 | 28.1% | -16.4% | +14268.3% |
| Mar 1976 | Apr 1976 | 5 | 3.3% | +42.4% | +15936.0% |
| May 1979 | Jun 1979 | 3 | 3.6% | +24.0% | +13822.7% |
| Oct 1979 | Oct 1979 | 2 | 2.9% | +22.4% | +13303.2% |
| Mar 1980 | Mar 1980 | 1 | 4.2% | +24.3% | +13106.1% |
| Apr 1981 | May 1981 | 4 | 5.0% | +10.3% | +12201.6% |
| Jun 1981 | Aug 1981 | 9 | 6.8% | +6.3% | +12548.1% |
| Aug 1981 | Oct 1981 | 6 | 9.5% | +22.5% | +12548.1% |
| Oct 1981 | Nov 1981 | 3 | 3.4% | +31.0% | +12286.4% |
| Dec 1981 | Feb 1982 | 8 | 3.7% | +25.7% | +12372.4% |
| Mar 1982 | Mar 1982 | 1 | 2.3% | +52.7% | +12201.6% |
| May 1982 | May 1982 | 1 | 0.4% | +43.3% | +11873.5% |
| Dec 1987 | Jan 1988 | 5 | 3.1% | +7.1% | +5694.3% |
| Mar 1988 | Apr 1988 | 2 | 1.0% | +7.0% | +5614.4% |
| Apr 1988 | May 1988 | 5 | 2.0% | +8.5% | +5575.3% |
| Jun 1988 | Jul 1988 | 1 | 1.2% | +24.0% | +5513.0% |
| Sep 1988 | Oct 1988 | 3 | 1.5% | +19.4% | +5408.8% |
| Dec 1988 | Dec 1988 | 1 | 1.2% | +30.5% | +5308.5% |
| Feb 1989 | Mar 1989 | 6 | 1.9% | +20.5% | +5163.3% |
| Apr 1989 | May 1989 | 4 | 1.4% | +23.6% | +5204.7% |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2000 | 3 | 3.1% | +62.0% | +1215.8% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 2 | 2.0% | -3.5% | +859.4% |
| Jul 2002 | Oct 2002 | 15 | 18.8% | +53.0% | +873.0% |
| Nov 2002 | Dec 2002 | 4 | 2.2% | +43.1% | +805.1% |
| Oct 2008 | Dec 2009 | 61 | 45.0% | +16.9% | +353.0% |
| Jan 2010 | Mar 2011 | 59 | 22.0% | -5.6% | +249.1% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 11 | 8.1% | +15.9% | +288.4% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 3 | 4.3% | +0.2% | +271.3% |
| Dec 2014 | Jun 2016 | 79 | 31.9% | -22.8% | +196.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 37 | 27.1% | +39.5% | +153.2% |
| Mar 2022 | Mar 2022 | 3 | 1.8% | +22.1% | +120.2% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 0.4% | +18.0% | +116.7% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 0.0% | +60.9% | +98.6% |
| Average | 13 | — | +21.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MDU below its 200-week moving average?
No. MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU) is currently 25.4% above its 200-week moving average of $14.80. It would need to fall to $14.80 to cross below the line.
What is MDU's 200-week moving average price?
MDU Resources Group, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $14.80 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MDU drops below its 200-week moving average?
MDU has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +21.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 13 weeks on average.
Is MDU a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MDU as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 31. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 6.9%. Price-to-book is 1.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MDU compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in MDU would have grown to $2854, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 10.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MDU has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MDU pay a dividend?
Yes. MDU Resources Group, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 304.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18