MDT
Medtronic plc Healthcare - Medical Devices Investor Relations →
Medtronic plc (MDT) closed at $102.90 as of 2026-02-02, trading 24.9% above its 200-week moving average of $82.36. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 25.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 69, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 2705 weeks of data, MDT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MDT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.2%.
With a market cap of $132.0 billion, MDT is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.0%. Return on equity stands at 9.8%. The stock trades at 2.7x book value.
MDT is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years. The current yield is 276.00%. Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 3.7% reduction over three years.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MDT would have grown to $3055, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 10.9% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming MDT as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -4.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: MDT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MDT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying MDT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +8.7% after 12 months (median +6.0%), compared to +7.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 65% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +31.2% vs +18.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MDT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
MDT has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +17.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1974 | May 1975 | 58 | 59.5% | -23.1% | +56344.2% |
| Jun 1975 | Jun 1975 | 4 | 6.0% | -27.1% | +66176.5% |
| Jul 1975 | Jul 1978 | 158 | 45.7% | -21.2% | +65751.5% |
| Oct 1978 | Oct 1978 | 1 | 0.3% | +82.0% | +92448.1% |
| Feb 1984 | Jul 1985 | 76 | 37.0% | -11.8% | +31756.3% |
| Aug 1985 | Aug 1985 | 3 | 8.2% | +148.4% | +34781.7% |
| Sep 1985 | Sep 1985 | 1 | 5.4% | +115.5% | +33912.7% |
| Apr 1993 | Apr 1993 | 1 | 7.4% | +36.6% | +5053.7% |
| Aug 1993 | Aug 1993 | 2 | 1.3% | +43.6% | +4443.2% |
| Sep 1993 | Sep 1993 | 1 | 0.0% | +59.0% | +4350.9% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 1.9% | +8.1% | +319.4% |
| May 2002 | May 2002 | 1 | 0.1% | +9.2% | +280.9% |
| Jun 2002 | Oct 2002 | 18 | 16.8% | +14.8% | +280.1% |
| Feb 2003 | Mar 2003 | 6 | 2.9% | +11.0% | +273.4% |
| Sep 2003 | Dec 2003 | 10 | 7.6% | +15.3% | +253.0% |
| May 2006 | May 2006 | 2 | 1.3% | +12.0% | +228.8% |
| Jun 2006 | Nov 2006 | 22 | 13.0% | +7.4% | +228.0% |
| Feb 2007 | Apr 2007 | 6 | 2.5% | +1.4% | +221.3% |
| Oct 2007 | Jun 2008 | 34 | 9.7% | -17.0% | +230.4% |
| Sep 2008 | Jan 2010 | 66 | 48.6% | -24.8% | +213.4% |
| Jan 2010 | Mar 2010 | 6 | 4.7% | -8.9% | +247.5% |
| May 2010 | Apr 2011 | 49 | 23.6% | +6.1% | +263.1% |
| May 2011 | Dec 2011 | 29 | 18.9% | -5.6% | +272.1% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 10.6% | +54.1% | +56.8% |
| Feb 2022 | Feb 2022 | 1 | 0.4% | -13.1% | +15.5% |
| May 2022 | Oct 2024 | 125 | 27.4% | -15.0% | +16.5% |
| Nov 2024 | Jan 2025 | 10 | 9.4% | +8.6% | +21.2% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 9 | 5.3% | N/A | +26.1% |
| Average | 25 | — | +17.2% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02