MCY
Mercury General Corporation Financial Services - Insurance - Property & Casualty Investor Relations →
Mercury General Corporation (MCY) closed at $100.94 as of 2026-09-18, trading 71.1% above its 200-week moving average of $59.00. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 74.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 51, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.04 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2082 weeks of data, MCY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MCY at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +5.7%.
Return on equity stands at 39.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 2.0x book value.
MCY passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MCY would have grown to $2598, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. MCY has returned 10.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 48% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MCY vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MCY Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying MCY when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +0.8% after 12 months (median +4.0%), compared to +1.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 55% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +18.8% vs +14.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MCY crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MCY would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MCY's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-03.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $95.74 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $106.16 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $119.12 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $135.69 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $157.61 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | $1.80 | $3.52 | +95.6% |
| 2026-05-05 | $2.15 | $3.50 | +62.8% |
| 2026-02-17 | $2.56 | $3.66 | +43.0% |
| 2025-11-04 | $2.15 | $3.86 | +79.5% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MCY's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MCY has crossed below its 200-week MA 27 times with an average 1-year return of +5.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1986 | Feb 1987 | 14 | 22.4% | -11.9% | +8447.8% |
| Apr 1987 | Aug 1987 | 16 | 23.4% | -33.3% | +7699.9% |
| Aug 1987 | Nov 1989 | 116 | 37.0% | -29.3% | +8332.3% |
| Dec 1989 | Feb 1990 | 11 | 15.4% | +46.5% | +9559.1% |
| Mar 1990 | Apr 1990 | 7 | 11.0% | +109.9% | +9559.1% |
| Feb 1999 | Mar 1999 | 3 | 0.6% | -30.0% | +847.6% |
| Apr 1999 | Apr 1999 | 3 | 3.6% | -5.4% | +860.1% |
| Jul 1999 | Nov 2000 | 69 | 38.6% | -24.6% | +800.0% |
| Jan 2001 | Jan 2001 | 2 | 8.4% | +30.3% | +808.5% |
| Feb 2001 | May 2001 | 13 | 9.8% | +18.4% | +731.2% |
| Jun 2001 | Jul 2001 | 7 | 7.3% | +34.7% | +740.9% |
| Oct 2007 | Nov 2007 | 4 | 1.4% | +6.9% | +384.8% |
| Dec 2007 | Apr 2008 | 19 | 13.1% | -4.3% | +383.3% |
| May 2008 | May 2008 | 2 | 1.2% | -26.7% | +382.8% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 7 | 7.3% | -27.6% | +375.8% |
| Oct 2008 | Mar 2010 | 73 | 51.0% | -13.7% | +416.8% |
| Aug 2010 | Sep 2010 | 5 | 5.6% | +3.4% | +445.0% |
| Mar 2011 | Mar 2011 | 1 | 1.4% | +23.1% | +425.6% |
| Jul 2011 | Aug 2011 | 4 | 3.1% | +16.3% | +427.4% |
| Sep 2011 | Sep 2011 | 1 | 0.7% | +14.1% | +429.5% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 1 | 0.5% | +45.4% | +257.7% |
| Jan 2018 | Jul 2018 | 26 | 13.1% | +12.6% | +187.6% |
| Oct 2019 | Feb 2020 | 15 | 3.5% | -11.1% | +167.1% |
| Feb 2020 | Dec 2020 | 41 | 26.6% | +42.8% | +195.3% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 1 | 2.6% | -30.8% | +145.1% |
| Jun 2022 | Jan 2024 | 84 | 38.6% | -34.0% | +142.5% |
| Jan 2024 | Feb 2024 | 1 | 4.2% | +31.5% | +173.9% |
| Average | 20 | — | +5.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MCY below its 200-week moving average?
No. Mercury General Corporation (MCY) is currently 71.1% above its 200-week moving average of $59.00. It would need to fall to $59.00 to cross below the line.
What is MCY's 200-week moving average price?
Mercury General Corporation's 200-week moving average is $59.00 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MCY drops below its 200-week moving average?
MCY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +5.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 20 weeks on average.
Is MCY a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MCY as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 51. Return on equity is 39.0%. Price-to-book is 2.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MCY compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in MCY would have grown to $2598, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 10.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MCY has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MCY pay a dividend?
Yes. Mercury General Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 126.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18