MCRI
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Resorts & Casinos Investor Relations →
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI) closed at $122.75 as of 2026-07-31, trading 53.4% above its 200-week moving average of $80.03. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 50.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 60, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.09 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1673 weeks of data, MCRI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 29 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MCRI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +44.2%.
With a market cap of $2.2 billion, MCRI is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.0%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 20.5%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 3.8x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.7% over the past three years. MCRI passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 32.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MCRI would have grown to $3595, compared to $2857 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.8% vs 11.0% for the index — confirming MCRI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 8.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MCRI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MCRI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying MCRI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +39.6% after 12 months (median +35.0%), compared to +2.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 76% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +96.8% vs +9.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MCRI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MCRI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MCRI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $85.00 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $94.30 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $105.88 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $120.69 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $140.33 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MCRI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MCRI has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +44.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1994 | Aug 1997 | 161 | 63.5% | -36.4% | +3236.6% |
| Aug 1997 | Sep 1997 | 1 | 0.3% | +14.3% | +5143.3% |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2000 | 5 | 7.5% | +10.3% | +5546.6% |
| Mar 2000 | May 2000 | 9 | 32.3% | +35.7% | +7764.9% |
| Jun 2000 | Jun 2000 | 1 | 4.8% | +8.0% | +5405.4% |
| Jul 2000 | Aug 2000 | 4 | 5.1% | +7.6% | +5143.3% |
| Oct 2000 | Oct 2000 | 1 | 4.9% | +15.7% | +5206.4% |
| Dec 2000 | Aug 2001 | 35 | 18.3% | +52.2% | +5271.1% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 12.6% | +150.0% | +5297.5% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2012 | 208 | 81.8% | -42.9% | +582.7% |
| Mar 2012 | Mar 2012 | 1 | 0.9% | -2.9% | +1291.7% |
| Apr 2012 | Dec 2012 | 33 | 23.3% | +47.0% | +1391.2% |
| Feb 2013 | Apr 2013 | 7 | 2.3% | +96.1% | +1332.2% |
| Jul 2014 | Aug 2014 | 3 | 2.9% | +51.1% | +1017.2% |
| Oct 2014 | Oct 2014 | 2 | 9.8% | +58.5% | +1115.9% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 11 | 58.8% | +188.2% | +473.7% |
| Jun 2020 | Aug 2020 | 8 | 17.6% | +98.6% | +282.3% |
| Average | 29 | — | +44.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MCRI below its 200-week moving average?
No. Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI) is currently 53.4% above its 200-week moving average of $80.03. It would need to fall to $80.03 to cross below the line.
What is MCRI's 200-week moving average price?
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $80.03 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MCRI drops below its 200-week moving average?
MCRI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +44.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 29 weeks on average.
Is MCRI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MCRI as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 60. Free cash flow yield is 6.0%. Return on equity is 20.5%. Price-to-book is 3.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MCRI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 32.1 years, $100 invested in MCRI would have grown to $3595, compared to $2857 for the S&P 500. That's 11.8% annualized vs 11.0% for the index. MCRI has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MCRI pay a dividend?
Yes. Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 98.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31