MCO
Moody's Corporation Financial Services - Ratings Investor Relations →
Moody's Corporation (MCO) closed at $450.67 as of 2026-06-19, trading 12.3% above its 200-week moving average of $401.24. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 11.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 58, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.12 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1602 weeks of data, MCO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 14 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MCO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +25.8%.
With a market cap of $78.7 billion, MCO is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.9%. Return on equity stands at 71.4%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 26.3x book value.
Over the past 30.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MCO would have grown to $6649, compared to $2181 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.6% vs 10.5% for the index — confirming MCO as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 29.3% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MCO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MCO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying MCO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +25.2% after 12 months (median +30.0%), compared to +9.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 88% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +59.2% vs +12.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MCO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MCO would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MCO's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-23.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $377.78 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $401.46 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $428.30 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $458.99 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $494.41 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MCO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MCO has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +25.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1996 | Aug 1996 | 1 | 0.5% | +24.6% | +7060.7% |
| Aug 1996 | Sep 1996 | 1 | 0.6% | +29.2% | +7060.7% |
| Aug 1998 | Sep 1998 | 2 | 9.3% | +17.6% | +6744.8% |
| Aug 1999 | Sep 1999 | 3 | 11.5% | +26.1% | +5984.3% |
| Oct 1999 | Oct 1999 | 2 | 4.4% | +26.4% | +5681.9% |
| Nov 1999 | Dec 1999 | 4 | 8.4% | +24.4% | +5507.8% |
| Jan 2000 | Mar 2000 | 10 | 11.5% | +30.4% | +5408.2% |
| Apr 2000 | Apr 2000 | 2 | 5.1% | +28.7% | +5441.0% |
| Jun 2000 | Jul 2000 | 2 | 1.5% | +56.6% | +5312.2% |
| Jul 2000 | Jul 2000 | 1 | 1.3% | +49.6% | +5280.9% |
| Aug 2007 | Sep 2007 | 5 | 11.4% | -15.2% | +1114.2% |
| Oct 2007 | Feb 2011 | 176 | 66.8% | -52.5% | +1041.7% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 5.0% | +49.4% | +1872.4% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 2.1% | +34.9% | +82.3% |
| Sep 2022 | Nov 2022 | 7 | 13.4% | +28.6% | +82.7% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 0.0% | +54.5% | +52.6% |
| Average | 14 | — | +25.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MCO below its 200-week moving average?
No. Moody's Corporation (MCO) is currently 12.3% above its 200-week moving average of $401.24. It would need to fall to $401.24 to cross below the line.
What is MCO's 200-week moving average price?
Moody's Corporation's 200-week moving average is $401.24 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MCO drops below its 200-week moving average?
MCO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +25.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 14 weeks on average.
Is MCO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MCO as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 58. Free cash flow yield is 2.9%. Return on equity is 71.4%. Price-to-book is 26.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MCO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 30.8 years, $100 invested in MCO would have grown to $6649, compared to $2181 for the S&P 500. That's 14.6% annualized vs 10.5% for the index. MCO has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MCO pay a dividend?
Yes. Moody's Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 88.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19