MCK
McKesson Corporation Healthcare - Distribution Investor Relations →
McKesson Corporation (MCK) closed at $874.65 as of 2026-09-18, trading 45.7% above its 200-week moving average of $600.45. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 47.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 68, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.07 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1614 weeks of data, MCK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 31 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MCK at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +18.1%.
With a market cap of $102.0 billion, MCK is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.7%, which is healthy. The stock trades at -23.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 11.8% over the past three years.
Over the past 31 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MCK would have grown to $4462, compared to $2230 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.0% vs 10.5% for the index — confirming MCK as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 5.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MCK vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MCK Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying MCK when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +19.1% after 12 months (median +22.0%), compared to +14.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 69% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +58.3% vs +31.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MCK crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MCK would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MCK's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $647.03 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $705.61 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $775.84 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $861.60 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $968.68 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $9.54 | $9.93 | +4.1% |
| 2026-05-07 | $11.57 | $11.69 | +1.1% |
| 2026-02-04 | $9.27 | $9.34 | +0.7% |
| 2025-11-05 | $9.05 | $9.86 | +8.9% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MCK's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MCK has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +18.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1996 | Sep 1996 | 7 | 5.7% | +108.6% | +5296.8% |
| Apr 1999 | Apr 2002 | 156 | 63.9% | -51.1% | +2975.7% |
| May 2002 | May 2003 | 53 | 24.1% | -24.0% | +2673.6% |
| Nov 2003 | Dec 2003 | 5 | 6.8% | -1.2% | +3533.0% |
| Jan 2004 | Apr 2004 | 14 | 11.8% | +4.7% | +3381.4% |
| Jun 2004 | Jul 2004 | 3 | 7.1% | +48.3% | +3280.2% |
| Aug 2004 | Dec 2004 | 18 | 23.3% | +55.5% | +3314.9% |
| Dec 2004 | Jan 2005 | 5 | 3.2% | +71.6% | +3260.2% |
| Sep 2008 | Jul 2009 | 43 | 40.8% | +19.4% | +1960.5% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 4 | 4.3% | -9.4% | +514.4% |
| Mar 2016 | Apr 2016 | 3 | 1.7% | -5.9% | +498.0% |
| Sep 2016 | Oct 2019 | 161 | 33.4% | -9.1% | +468.0% |
| Oct 2019 | Nov 2019 | 2 | 5.1% | +8.8% | +568.0% |
| Dec 2019 | Jan 2020 | 5 | 4.7% | +28.4% | +541.9% |
| Jan 2020 | Feb 2020 | 1 | 0.6% | +23.6% | +540.4% |
| Feb 2020 | May 2020 | 12 | 12.3% | +22.1% | +551.2% |
| Average | 31 | — | +18.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MCK below its 200-week moving average?
No. McKesson Corporation (MCK) is currently 45.7% above its 200-week moving average of $600.45. It would need to fall to $600.45 to cross below the line.
What is MCK's 200-week moving average price?
McKesson Corporation's 200-week moving average is $600.45 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MCK drops below its 200-week moving average?
MCK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +18.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 31 weeks on average.
Is MCK a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MCK as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 68. Free cash flow yield is 6.7%. Price-to-book is -23.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MCK compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 31 years, $100 invested in MCK would have grown to $4462, compared to $2230 for the S&P 500. That's 13.0% annualized vs 10.5% for the index. MCK has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MCK pay a dividend?
Yes. McKesson Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 43.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18