MCHP
Microchip Technology Incorporated Technology - Semiconductors Investor Relations →
Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP) closed at $73.27 as of 2026-09-18, trading 2.5% above its 200-week moving average of $71.50. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 3.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 33, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.85 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1700 weeks of data, MCHP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times. On average, these episodes lasted 7 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MCHP at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +45.8%.
With a market cap of $39.8 billion, MCHP is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.4%. Return on equity stands at 7.2%. The stock trades at 6.2x book value.
Over the past 32.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MCHP would have grown to $7257, compared to $2899 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.0% vs 10.9% for the index — confirming MCHP as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -34.7% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MCHP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MCHP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 29 historical episodes, buying MCHP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +45.6% after 12 months (median +34.0%), compared to +14.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +81.1% vs +29.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MCHP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MCHP would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MCHP's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $65.93 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $77.58 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $94.21 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $119.93 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $164.97 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | $0.70 | $0.76 | +8.7% |
| 2026-05-07 | $0.50 | $0.57 | +12.9% |
| 2026-02-05 | $0.43 | $0.44 | +2.8% |
| 2025-11-06 | $0.33 | $0.35 | +4.9% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MCHP's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MCHP has crossed below its 200-week MA 29 times with an average 1-year return of +45.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1996 | Apr 1996 | 1 | 0.9% | +97.3% | +5930.3% |
| Jun 1996 | Jun 1996 | 2 | 5.6% | +97.7% | +6204.4% |
| Jul 1996 | Jul 1996 | 1 | 4.6% | +134.3% | +6133.5% |
| Jan 1998 | Feb 1998 | 3 | 10.5% | +60.6% | +4126.9% |
| Feb 1998 | Apr 1998 | 7 | 13.3% | +12.7% | +3722.8% |
| May 1998 | Jun 1998 | 4 | 18.4% | +79.1% | +3674.0% |
| Aug 1998 | Oct 1998 | 9 | 25.8% | +101.2% | +3456.3% |
| Feb 1999 | Mar 1999 | 1 | 1.8% | +181.1% | +3293.2% |
| Dec 2000 | Dec 2000 | 1 | 6.3% | +99.8% | +1942.0% |
| Sep 2002 | Oct 2002 | 5 | 17.0% | +38.3% | +1295.7% |
| Jan 2003 | Jan 2003 | 1 | 0.0% | +40.4% | +1156.9% |
| Mar 2003 | May 2003 | 11 | 18.8% | +27.5% | +1159.9% |
| Jun 2003 | Jun 2003 | 1 | 2.2% | +39.3% | +1135.7% |
| Jan 2005 | Jan 2005 | 3 | 2.6% | +40.2% | +1005.3% |
| Mar 2005 | Apr 2005 | 5 | 4.5% | +43.0% | +959.7% |
| Oct 2007 | Oct 2007 | 1 | 2.2% | -21.0% | +745.9% |
| Nov 2007 | Dec 2007 | 2 | 6.4% | -35.5% | +783.6% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 4 | 7.5% | -31.3% | +744.5% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 3 | 4.5% | -22.8% | +701.1% |
| Sep 2008 | Nov 2009 | 65 | 42.9% | -4.2% | +723.7% |
| Jan 2010 | Mar 2010 | 7 | 6.6% | +43.1% | +727.9% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 1 | 3.3% | +53.2% | +173.7% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 5 | 25.0% | +113.5% | +138.0% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 1 | 0.3% | +62.4% | +44.0% |
| Oct 2022 | Oct 2022 | 1 | 1.9% | +37.7% | +40.5% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 1 | 0.8% | -8.4% | +4.5% |
| Oct 2024 | Jun 2025 | 35 | 50.1% | -14.1% | +3.5% |
| Jul 2025 | Jan 2026 | 24 | 27.1% | +17.0% | +9.4% |
| Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | 5 | 10.6% | N/A | +14.4% |
| Average | 7 | — | +45.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MCHP below its 200-week moving average?
No. Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP) is currently 2.5% above its 200-week moving average of $71.50. It would need to fall to $71.50 to cross below the line.
What is MCHP's 200-week moving average price?
Microchip Technology Incorporated's 200-week moving average is $71.50 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MCHP drops below its 200-week moving average?
MCHP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +45.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 7 weeks on average.
Is MCHP a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MCHP as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 33. Free cash flow yield is 3.4%. Return on equity is 7.2%. Price-to-book is 6.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MCHP compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 32.7 years, $100 invested in MCHP would have grown to $7257, compared to $2899 for the S&P 500. That's 14.0% annualized vs 10.9% for the index. MCHP has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MCHP pay a dividend?
Yes. Microchip Technology Incorporated currently pays a dividend yield of 257.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18