MCFT
MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Recreational Vehicles Investor Relations →
MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc. (MCFT) closed at $19.82 as of 2026-09-18, trading 10.8% below its 200-week moving average of $22.22. This places MCFT in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -11.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 38, indicating neutral momentum.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.2x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 535 weeks of data, MCFT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times. On average, these episodes lasted 23 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MCFT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +20.6%.
With a market cap of $482 million, MCFT is a small-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -0.6%. The stock trades at 1.3x book value.
Share count has increased 41.2% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 10.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MCFT would have grown to $177, compared to $428 for the S&P 500. MCFT has returned 5.7% annualized vs 15.1% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 3 open-market purchases totaling $2,773,128. Notably, these purchases occurred while MCFT is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -41.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MCFT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MCFT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying MCFT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +22.7% after 12 months (median +33.0%), compared to +18.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 83% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +5.8% vs +41.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MCFT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MCFT would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MCFT's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $20.50 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $23.03 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $26.26 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $30.55 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $36.51 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | $0.61 | $0.67 | +10.7% |
| 2026-05-07 | $0.35 | $0.45 | +27.0% |
| 2026-02-05 | $0.16 | $0.29 | +76.5% |
| 2025-11-06 | $0.16 | $0.28 | +77.2% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MCFT's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MCFT has crossed below its 200-week MA 9 times with an average 1-year return of +20.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2019 | Jul 2020 | 52 | 73.8% | +29.8% | +19.4% |
| Sep 2020 | Oct 2020 | 7 | 17.2% | +45.5% | +13.3% |
| Apr 2022 | Apr 2022 | 1 | 0.0% | +23.6% | -12.2% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 4 | 7.5% | +42.9% | -4.3% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 7 | 13.3% | +0.7% | -6.4% |
| Aug 2023 | Feb 2026 | 127 | 33.6% | -19.0% | -13.4% |
| Feb 2026 | Apr 2026 | 7 | 11.3% | N/A | -8.7% |
| Jun 2026 | Jun 2026 | 1 | 0.7% | N/A | -9.8% |
| Sep 2026 | Ongoing | 2+ | 11.7% | Ongoing | +0.9% |
| Average | 23 | — | +20.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MCFT below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc. (MCFT) is trading 10.8% below its 200-week moving average of $22.22. The current price is $19.82.
What is MCFT's 200-week moving average price?
MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $22.22 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MCFT drops below its 200-week moving average?
MCFT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +20.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 23 weeks on average.
Is MCFT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MCFT as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 38. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is -0.6%. Price-to-book is 1.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MCFT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 10.3 years, $100 invested in MCFT would have grown to $177, compared to $428 for the S&P 500. That's 5.7% annualized vs 15.1% for the index. MCFT has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18