MCD
McDonald's Corporation Consumer Discretionary - Restaurants Investor Relations →
McDonald's Corporation (MCD) closed at $278.61 as of 2026-06-19, trading 1.3% above its 200-week moving average of $275.12. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 3.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 24, MCD is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.02 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 3080 weeks of data, MCD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 17 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MCD at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +3.1%.
With a market cap of $198.0 billion, MCD is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.0%. The stock trades at -153.9x book value.
MCD is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years. Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 2.8% reduction over three years.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MCD would have grown to $4576, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.1% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming MCD as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 9.4% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MCD vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MCD Crosses Below the Line?
Across 7 historical episodes, buying MCD when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +3.7% after 12 months (median -9.0%), compared to -2.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 43% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -6.3% vs -9.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MCD crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MCD would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MCD's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-06.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $268.76 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $286.16 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $305.96 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $328.71 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $355.12 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MCD's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MCD has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +3.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1968 | Jul 1968 | 1 | 0.8% | -43.4% | +151667.4% |
| Jul 1968 | Sep 1968 | 8 | 7.7% | -48.9% | +153089.4% |
| Mar 1969 | Mar 1969 | 3 | 6.8% | -15.5% | +157899.6% |
| Jun 1969 | Feb 1971 | 86 | 50.2% | +0.4% | +251483.4% |
| Jul 1974 | Apr 1975 | 41 | 55.8% | +33.9% | +64218.4% |
| Jul 1975 | Nov 1975 | 15 | 14.3% | +13.0% | +54138.6% |
| Dec 1975 | Dec 1975 | 1 | 0.1% | -0.8% | +50963.1% |
| May 1976 | Jun 1976 | 1 | 1.7% | -20.9% | +50942.9% |
| Aug 1976 | Aug 1976 | 3 | 1.1% | -12.8% | +50683.5% |
| Oct 1976 | Nov 1976 | 3 | 7.6% | -9.0% | +51771.7% |
| Dec 1976 | Dec 1976 | 2 | 5.5% | -3.4% | +51378.9% |
| Jan 1977 | Sep 1977 | 37 | 24.6% | -7.6% | +52245.1% |
| Oct 1977 | Nov 1977 | 4 | 5.0% | +7.7% | +56894.5% |
| Jan 1978 | Apr 1978 | 14 | 8.1% | -4.1% | +56536.8% |
| Oct 1978 | Aug 1979 | 42 | 20.8% | -10.4% | +54292.0% |
| Aug 1979 | Aug 1979 | 1 | 0.4% | +1.3% | +53735.8% |
| Sep 1979 | May 1980 | 34 | 21.7% | -1.6% | +54145.8% |
| Jul 1980 | Aug 1980 | 2 | 2.4% | +40.1% | +58300.1% |
| Oct 1980 | Nov 1980 | 4 | 4.0% | +51.3% | +59371.1% |
| Dec 1980 | Dec 1980 | 1 | 1.8% | +50.4% | +58440.8% |
| Sep 1990 | Nov 1990 | 7 | 3.4% | +30.6% | +8738.2% |
| Jun 2000 | Jun 2000 | 1 | 1.5% | -7.8% | +1596.4% |
| Jul 2000 | Jul 2000 | 3 | 3.6% | -11.3% | +1593.0% |
| Aug 2000 | Nov 2000 | 12 | 13.4% | -4.3% | +1583.0% |
| Nov 2000 | Dec 2000 | 4 | 9.6% | -12.5% | +1605.8% |
| Jan 2001 | Nov 2003 | 149 | 56.6% | -18.8% | +1508.3% |
| Dec 2003 | Jan 2004 | 4 | 4.8% | +36.4% | +1991.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 5.8% | +53.5% | +116.9% |
| Average | 17 | — | +3.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MCD below its 200-week moving average?
No. McDonald's Corporation (MCD) is currently 1.3% above its 200-week moving average of $275.12. It would need to fall to $275.12 to cross below the line.
What is MCD's 200-week moving average price?
McDonald's Corporation's 200-week moving average is $275.12 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MCD drops below its 200-week moving average?
MCD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +3.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 17 weeks on average.
Is MCD a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MCD as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 24 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 3.0%. Price-to-book is -153.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MCD compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in MCD would have grown to $4576, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 12.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MCD has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19