MCD
McDonald's Corporation Consumer Discretionary - Restaurants Investor Relations →
McDonald's Corporation (MCD) closed at $327.16 as of 2026-02-02, trading 20.4% above its 200-week moving average of $271.66. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 16.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 76, MCD is in overbought territory.
Over the past 3061 weeks of data, MCD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 17 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MCD at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +3.1%.
With a market cap of $233.5 billion, MCD is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.9%. The stock trades at -107.7x book value.
MCD is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years. The current yield is 227.00%. Management has been repurchasing shares, with a 4.0% reduction over three years.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MCD would have grown to $5307, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.7% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming MCD as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -2.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: MCD vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MCD Crosses Below the Line?
Across 7 historical episodes, buying MCD when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +3.7% after 12 months (median -9.0%), compared to -2.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 43% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -6.3% vs -9.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MCD crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
MCD has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +3.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1968 | Jul 1968 | 1 | 0.8% | -43.4% | +175930.1% |
| Jul 1968 | Sep 1968 | 8 | 7.7% | -48.9% | +177579.5% |
| Mar 1969 | Mar 1969 | 3 | 6.8% | -15.5% | +183158.6% |
| Jun 1969 | Feb 1971 | 86 | 50.2% | +0.4% | +291703.8% |
| Jul 1974 | Apr 1975 | 41 | 55.8% | +33.9% | +74500.9% |
| Jul 1975 | Nov 1975 | 15 | 14.3% | +13.0% | +62809.7% |
| Dec 1975 | Dec 1975 | 1 | 0.1% | -0.8% | +59126.5% |
| May 1976 | Jun 1976 | 1 | 1.7% | -20.9% | +59103.0% |
| Aug 1976 | Aug 1976 | 3 | 1.1% | -12.8% | +58802.2% |
| Oct 1976 | Nov 1976 | 3 | 7.6% | -9.0% | +60064.4% |
| Dec 1976 | Dec 1976 | 2 | 5.5% | -3.4% | +59608.8% |
| Jan 1977 | Sep 1977 | 37 | 24.6% | -7.6% | +60613.5% |
| Oct 1977 | Nov 1977 | 4 | 5.0% | +7.7% | +66006.1% |
| Jan 1978 | Apr 1978 | 14 | 8.1% | -4.1% | +65591.3% |
| Oct 1978 | Aug 1979 | 42 | 20.8% | -10.4% | +62987.6% |
| Aug 1979 | Aug 1979 | 1 | 0.4% | +1.3% | +62342.4% |
| Sep 1979 | May 1980 | 34 | 21.7% | -1.6% | +62817.9% |
| Jul 1980 | Aug 1980 | 2 | 2.4% | +40.1% | +67636.5% |
| Oct 1980 | Nov 1980 | 4 | 4.0% | +51.3% | +68878.6% |
| Dec 1980 | Dec 1980 | 1 | 1.8% | +50.4% | +67799.7% |
| Sep 1990 | Nov 1990 | 7 | 3.4% | +30.6% | +10151.2% |
| Jun 2000 | Jun 2000 | 1 | 1.5% | -7.8% | +1867.6% |
| Jul 2000 | Jul 2000 | 3 | 3.6% | -11.3% | +1863.7% |
| Aug 2000 | Nov 2000 | 12 | 13.4% | -4.3% | +1852.0% |
| Nov 2000 | Dec 2000 | 4 | 9.6% | -12.5% | +1878.5% |
| Jan 2001 | Nov 2003 | 149 | 56.6% | -18.8% | +1765.4% |
| Dec 2003 | Jan 2004 | 4 | 4.8% | +36.4% | +2325.6% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 5.8% | +53.5% | +151.6% |
| Average | 17 | — | +3.1% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02