MC
Moelis & Company Financial Services - Capital Markets Investor Relations →
Moelis & Company (MC) closed at $67.08 as of 2026-07-31, trading 24.7% above its 200-week moving average of $53.80. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 25.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 49, indicating neutral momentum.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.1x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 593 weeks of data, MC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +37.1%.
With a market cap of $5.0 billion, MC is a mid-cap stock. The stock trades at 10.2x book value.
Share count has increased 14.7% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 11.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MC would have grown to $503, compared to $436 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.2% vs 13.8% for the index — confirming MC as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 171.3% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying MC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +42.8% after 12 months (median +45.0%), compared to +22.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 92% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +96.2% vs +46.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $41.18 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $47.58 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $56.34 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $69.05 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $89.18 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MC has crossed below its 200-week MA 12 times with an average 1-year return of +37.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2015 | Apr 2016 | 56 | 17.7% | -1.9% | +401.1% |
| May 2016 | Nov 2016 | 27 | 17.1% | +50.1% | +414.9% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 3 | 3.8% | +13.7% | +233.3% |
| Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | 5 | 4.2% | +0.6% | +215.7% |
| Sep 2019 | Oct 2019 | 5 | 8.7% | +8.0% | +220.5% |
| Nov 2019 | Jan 2020 | 8 | 8.3% | +22.3% | +210.0% |
| Feb 2020 | Jun 2020 | 14 | 25.6% | +75.4% | +211.2% |
| Jun 2020 | Sep 2020 | 15 | 14.3% | +74.6% | +188.6% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 4 | 10.1% | +35.2% | +128.3% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 1 | 1.1% | +55.8% | +105.5% |
| Apr 2023 | May 2023 | 4 | 9.4% | +38.7% | +104.8% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 0.1% | +73.0% | +88.7% |
| Average | 12 | — | +37.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Moelis & Company (MC) is currently 24.7% above its 200-week moving average of $53.80. It would need to fall to $53.80 to cross below the line.
What is MC's 200-week moving average price?
Moelis & Company's 200-week moving average is $53.80 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MC drops below its 200-week moving average?
MC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +37.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 12 weeks on average.
Is MC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MC as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 49. Price-to-book is 10.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 11.4 years, $100 invested in MC would have grown to $503, compared to $436 for the S&P 500. That's 15.2% annualized vs 13.8% for the index. MC has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MC pay a dividend?
Yes. Moelis & Company currently pays a dividend yield of 380.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31