MC
Moelis & Company Financial Services - Capital Markets Investor Relations →
Moelis & Company (MC) closed at $67.18 as of 2026-06-19, trading 27.4% above its 200-week moving average of $52.75. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 28.7% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 80, MC is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.89 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 587 weeks of data, MC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +33.9%.
With a market cap of $5.0 billion, MC is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 41.8%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 10.3x book value.
Share count has increased 14.7% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 11.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MC would have grown to $504, compared to $438 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.3% vs 13.9% for the index — confirming MC as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 171.3% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 11 historical episodes, buying MC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +41.0% after 12 months (median +41.0%), compared to +21.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 91% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +99.5% vs +44.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $40.19 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $46.34 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $54.71 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $66.78 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $85.67 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MC has crossed below its 200-week MA 11 times with an average 1-year return of +33.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2015 | Apr 2016 | 56 | 17.7% | -1.9% | +401.8% |
| May 2016 | Nov 2016 | 27 | 17.0% | +50.1% | +415.7% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 3 | 3.7% | +13.7% | +233.8% |
| Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | 5 | 4.0% | +1.3% | +221.0% |
| Sep 2019 | Oct 2019 | 5 | 8.6% | +8.0% | +221.0% |
| Nov 2019 | Jan 2020 | 8 | 8.1% | +22.3% | +210.5% |
| Feb 2020 | Jun 2020 | 14 | 25.4% | +75.4% | +211.6% |
| Jun 2020 | Sep 2020 | 15 | 14.1% | +74.6% | +189.1% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 4 | 9.9% | +35.2% | +128.6% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 1 | 0.9% | +55.8% | +105.8% |
| Apr 2023 | May 2023 | 4 | 9.2% | +38.7% | +105.1% |
| Average | 13 | — | +33.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MC below its 200-week moving average?
No. Moelis & Company (MC) is currently 27.4% above its 200-week moving average of $52.75. It would need to fall to $52.75 to cross below the line.
What is MC's 200-week moving average price?
Moelis & Company's 200-week moving average is $52.75 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MC drops below its 200-week moving average?
MC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 11 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +33.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 13 weeks on average.
Is MC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MC as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 80 (overbought). Return on equity is 41.8%. Price-to-book is 10.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 11.3 years, $100 invested in MC would have grown to $504, compared to $438 for the S&P 500. That's 15.3% annualized vs 13.9% for the index. MC has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MC pay a dividend?
Yes. Moelis & Company currently pays a dividend yield of 375.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19