MBWM
Mercantile Bank Corporation Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
Mercantile Bank Corporation (MBWM) closed at $60.03 as of 2026-09-18, trading 49.6% above its 200-week moving average of $40.14. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 54.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 65, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.08 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1369 weeks of data, MBWM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 29 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MBWM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +24.5%.
With a market cap of $1038 million, MBWM is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 13.7%. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
Share count has increased 7.4% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 26.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MBWM would have grown to $1736, compared to $835 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.4% vs 8.4% for the index — confirming MBWM as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -54.2% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MBWM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MBWM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying MBWM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +26.8% after 12 months (median +43.0%), compared to +7.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +50.7% vs +3.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MBWM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MBWM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MBWM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-20.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $55.94 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $57.56 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $59.27 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $61.09 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $63.02 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | $1.33 | $1.53 | +14.9% |
| 2026-04-21 | $1.31 | $1.46 | +11.3% |
| 2026-01-20 | $1.37 | $1.40 | +2.5% |
| 2025-10-21 | $1.38 | $1.46 | +6.0% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MBWM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MBWM has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +24.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2000 | Dec 2000 | 23 | 23.7% | +85.3% | +1635.5% |
| Dec 2000 | Jan 2001 | 2 | 3.8% | +54.0% | +1301.1% |
| Jan 2007 | Jan 2007 | 2 | 0.6% | -60.5% | +255.6% |
| Feb 2007 | Jan 2011 | 203 | 86.6% | -55.6% | +261.4% |
| Jan 2011 | Feb 2011 | 1 | 6.7% | +43.2% | +1168.6% |
| Feb 2011 | Feb 2011 | 1 | 3.3% | +54.8% | +1161.1% |
| Feb 2020 | Jan 2021 | 46 | 39.8% | +6.7% | +168.6% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 5.0% | +47.3% | +171.2% |
| Apr 2023 | May 2023 | 6 | 15.2% | +30.9% | +135.7% |
| Jun 2023 | Jul 2023 | 3 | 2.8% | +39.1% | +142.6% |
| Average | 29 | — | +24.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MBWM below its 200-week moving average?
No. Mercantile Bank Corporation (MBWM) is currently 49.6% above its 200-week moving average of $40.14. It would need to fall to $40.14 to cross below the line.
What is MBWM's 200-week moving average price?
Mercantile Bank Corporation's 200-week moving average is $40.14 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MBWM drops below its 200-week moving average?
MBWM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +24.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 29 weeks on average.
Is MBWM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MBWM as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 65. Return on equity is 13.7%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MBWM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 26.3 years, $100 invested in MBWM would have grown to $1736, compared to $835 for the S&P 500. That's 11.4% annualized vs 8.4% for the index. MBWM has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MBWM pay a dividend?
Yes. Mercantile Bank Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 258.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18