MBIN
Merchants Bancorp Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) closed at $52.07 as of 2026-09-18, trading 43.9% above its 200-week moving average of $36.19. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 47.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 55, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 3.2x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 416 weeks of data, MBIN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 11 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MBIN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +41.2%.
With a market cap of $2.4 billion, MBIN is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 11.7%. The stock trades at 1.3x book value.
Share count has increased 6.4% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MBIN would have grown to $386, compared to $317 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 18.4% vs 15.5% for the index — confirming MBIN as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MBIN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MBIN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying MBIN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +45.8% after 12 months (median +51.0%), compared to +23.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 70% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +78.2% vs +40.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MBIN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. MBIN currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | $1.22 | $1.48 | +21.3% |
| 2026-04-28 | $1.16 | $1.25 | +7.8% |
| 2026-01-28 | $0.94 | $1.28 | +36.2% |
| 2025-10-28 | $0.79 | $0.97 | +22.8% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MBIN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MBIN has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +41.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2018 | Nov 2018 | 3 | 4.2% | -26.8% | +289.8% |
| Dec 2018 | Apr 2019 | 18 | 15.6% | -12.1% | +308.7% |
| May 2019 | Feb 2020 | 39 | 29.4% | -30.7% | +289.1% |
| Feb 2020 | Aug 2020 | 26 | 33.2% | +92.0% | +367.2% |
| Sep 2020 | Sep 2020 | 1 | 1.5% | +93.0% | +327.7% |
| Apr 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 0.2% | +52.2% | +68.6% |
| Apr 2025 | May 2025 | 4 | 0.7% | +50.6% | +69.0% |
| Jun 2025 | Jun 2025 | 2 | 1.3% | +61.6% | +68.6% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 3 | 8.9% | +91.1% | +80.7% |
| Sep 2025 | Nov 2025 | 9 | 3.7% | N/A | +64.0% |
| Average | 11 | — | +41.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MBIN below its 200-week moving average?
No. Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) is currently 43.9% above its 200-week moving average of $36.19. It would need to fall to $36.19 to cross below the line.
What is MBIN's 200-week moving average price?
Merchants Bancorp's 200-week moving average is $36.19 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MBIN drops below its 200-week moving average?
MBIN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +41.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 11 weeks on average.
Is MBIN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MBIN as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 55. Return on equity is 11.7%. Price-to-book is 1.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MBIN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 8 years, $100 invested in MBIN would have grown to $386, compared to $317 for the S&P 500. That's 18.4% annualized vs 15.5% for the index. MBIN has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MBIN pay a dividend?
Yes. Merchants Bancorp currently pays a dividend yield of 85.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18