MBIN
Merchants Bancorp Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) closed at $55.18 as of 2026-07-31, trading 56.8% above its 200-week moving average of $35.20. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 36.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 62, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.08 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 409 weeks of data, MBIN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 11 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MBIN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +41.2%.
With a market cap of $2.5 billion, MBIN is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 11.7%. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
Share count has increased 6.4% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 7.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MBIN would have grown to $408, compared to $310 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 19.7% vs 15.6% for the index — confirming MBIN as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MBIN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MBIN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying MBIN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +43.9% after 12 months (median +51.0%), compared to +24.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +78.2% vs +40.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MBIN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. MBIN currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MBIN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MBIN has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +41.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2018 | Nov 2018 | 3 | 4.2% | -26.8% | +312.2% |
| Dec 2018 | Apr 2019 | 18 | 15.6% | -12.1% | +332.2% |
| May 2019 | Feb 2020 | 39 | 29.4% | -30.7% | +311.5% |
| Feb 2020 | Aug 2020 | 26 | 33.2% | +92.0% | +394.1% |
| Sep 2020 | Sep 2020 | 1 | 1.5% | +93.0% | +352.3% |
| Apr 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 0.2% | +52.2% | +78.3% |
| Apr 2025 | May 2025 | 4 | 0.7% | +50.6% | +78.7% |
| Jun 2025 | Jun 2025 | 2 | 1.3% | +61.6% | +78.3% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 3 | 8.9% | +91.1% | +91.1% |
| Sep 2025 | Nov 2025 | 9 | 3.7% | N/A | +73.5% |
| Average | 11 | — | +41.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MBIN below its 200-week moving average?
No. Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) is currently 56.8% above its 200-week moving average of $35.20. It would need to fall to $35.20 to cross below the line.
What is MBIN's 200-week moving average price?
Merchants Bancorp's 200-week moving average is $35.20 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MBIN drops below its 200-week moving average?
MBIN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +41.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 11 weeks on average.
Is MBIN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MBIN as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 62. Return on equity is 11.7%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MBIN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 7.8 years, $100 invested in MBIN would have grown to $408, compared to $310 for the S&P 500. That's 19.7% annualized vs 15.6% for the index. MBIN has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MBIN pay a dividend?
Yes. Merchants Bancorp currently pays a dividend yield of 80.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31