MATV
Mativ Holdings, Inc. Basic Materials - Specialty Chemicals Investor Relations →
Mativ Holdings, Inc. (MATV) closed at $8.73 as of 2026-07-31, trading 32.1% below its 200-week moving average of $12.85. This places MATV in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -37.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 44, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.19 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1555 weeks of data, MATV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times. On average, these episodes lasted 37 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -5.2%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $481 million, MATV is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 31.1%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 17.0%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.0x book value.
This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 29.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MATV would have grown to $149, compared to $1758 for the S&P 500. MATV has returned 1.4% annualized vs 10.1% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -15.2% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MATV vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MATV Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying MATV when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -1.4% after 12 months (median +0.0%), compared to -2.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 47% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +39.2% vs +4.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MATV crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MATV would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MATV's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $6.70 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $7.36 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $8.18 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $9.20 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $10.51 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MATV's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MATV has crossed below its 200-week MA 19 times with an average 1-year return of +-5.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1998 | Feb 2001 | 139 | 58.9% | -41.1% | +53.3% |
| Mar 2001 | Apr 2001 | 6 | 16.8% | +20.8% | +103.2% |
| Jul 2005 | Jan 2006 | 25 | 19.0% | -21.4% | +42.2% |
| Jan 2006 | Dec 2006 | 45 | 35.9% | -0.8% | +43.5% |
| Jan 2007 | Jan 2007 | 1 | 1.4% | -0.9% | +40.8% |
| Jan 2007 | Apr 2007 | 10 | 11.1% | +3.0% | +46.1% |
| Jul 2007 | Oct 2007 | 10 | 19.6% | -21.0% | +54.8% |
| Oct 2007 | Oct 2007 | 1 | 9.2% | -30.8% | +48.8% |
| Nov 2007 | Nov 2007 | 1 | 2.0% | -36.2% | +38.2% |
| Dec 2007 | Dec 2007 | 1 | 4.7% | -31.8% | +42.3% |
| Dec 2007 | Apr 2009 | 68 | 39.4% | -13.9% | +42.2% |
| Jul 2015 | Nov 2015 | 17 | 14.7% | -5.3% | -62.0% |
| Feb 2016 | Aug 2016 | 27 | 25.3% | +32.6% | -55.9% |
| Sep 2016 | Nov 2016 | 9 | 7.3% | +4.5% | -63.3% |
| May 2017 | Jul 2017 | 10 | 3.4% | +21.8% | -63.8% |
| Oct 2018 | Feb 2019 | 20 | 29.1% | +12.0% | -63.7% |
| Apr 2019 | Sep 2019 | 19 | 12.4% | +3.2% | -60.4% |
| Jan 2020 | Nov 2020 | 40 | 36.4% | +11.8% | -65.9% |
| Nov 2021 | Ongoing | 246+ | 75.6% | Ongoing | -66.0% |
| Average | 37 | — | +-5.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MATV below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, Mativ Holdings, Inc. (MATV) is trading 32.1% below its 200-week moving average of $12.85. The current price is $8.73.
What is MATV's 200-week moving average price?
Mativ Holdings, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $12.85 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MATV drops below its 200-week moving average?
MATV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -5.2%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 37 weeks on average.
Is MATV a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MATV as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 44. Free cash flow yield is 31.1%. Return on equity is 17.0%. Price-to-book is 1.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MATV compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 29.8 years, $100 invested in MATV would have grown to $149, compared to $1758 for the S&P 500. That's 1.4% annualized vs 10.1% for the index. MATV has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MATV pay a dividend?
Yes. Mativ Holdings, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 467.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31