MATV

Mativ Holdings, Inc. Basic Materials - Specialty Chemicals Investor Relations →

YES
40.0% BELOW
↓ Approaching Was -38.7% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $13.21
14-Week RSI 44
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 1.2x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 0.87

Mativ Holdings, Inc. (MATV) closed at $7.92 as of 2026-06-19, trading 40.0% below its 200-week moving average of $13.21. This places MATV in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -38.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 44, indicating neutral momentum.

Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.87 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 1549 weeks of data, MATV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 38 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -5.8%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.

With a market cap of $437 million, MATV is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 34.3%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 17.0%, a solid level. The stock trades at 0.9x book value.

This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.

Over the past 29.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MATV would have grown to $135, compared to $1758 for the S&P 500. MATV has returned 1.0% annualized vs 10.1% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.

Free cash flow has been declining at a -15.2% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: MATV vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After MATV Crosses Below the Line?

Across 18 historical episodes, buying MATV when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -2.1% after 12 months (median +0.0%), compared to -3.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 44% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +40.8% vs +2.4% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MATV crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MATV would reach each dislocation threshold.

Current Bean Score +0.91σ
Current FCF Yield 28.34%
Baseline Yield 25.14%
Historical σ 3.01pp

Dislocation Price Levels

Prices where MATV's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-05.

LevelσPriceSignal
Deep Value+2σ$6.67Unusually cheap — potential buy zone
Value+1σ$7.37Cheap vs. own history
Fair Value+0σ$8.24Historical mean behavior
Expensive-1σ$9.34Expensive vs. own history
Deep Expensive-2σ$10.77Unusually expensive — potential trim zone

Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end

Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 22 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

11 / 13 weeks minimum

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

Dislocation Scores Experimental

Each score measures deviation from MATV's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.

Yield Dislocation -0.80σ Dividend yield vs own 10-yr norm
Drawdown Score +1.24σ Distance from line vs own history
Sector-Relative +1.01σ Vs sector median this week
Buyback Acceleration +0.8pp YoY share change vs own 3-yr pace (− = accelerating)
Insider Intensity N/A TTM buys / market cap, percentile of buyers
FCF Yield vs History +24.1pp Vs own recent annual mean
Earnings Quality Improving Accrual gap trend (-11.2pp of revenue)

Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.

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Historical Touches

MATV has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +-5.8% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Jun 1998Feb 200113958.9%-41.1%+39.1%
Mar 2001Apr 2001616.8%+20.8%+84.3%
Jul 2005Jan 20062519.0%-21.4%+29.0%
Jan 2006Dec 20064536.4%-0.8%+30.2%
Jan 2007Jan 200711.3%-0.9%+27.8%
Jan 2007Apr 20071011.1%+3.0%+32.6%
Jul 2007Oct 20071019.5%-21.0%+40.5%
Oct 2007Oct 200719.1%-30.8%+35.0%
Nov 2007Nov 200712.0%-36.2%+25.3%
Dec 2007Dec 200714.7%-31.8%+29.1%
Dec 2007Apr 20096839.4%-13.9%+29.0%
Jul 2015Nov 20151714.7%-5.3%-65.5%
Feb 2016Nov 20163825.3%+32.6%-60.0%
May 2017Jul 2017103.3%+21.8%-67.2%
Oct 2018Feb 20192029.1%+12.0%-67.0%
Apr 2019Sep 20191912.3%+3.2%-64.1%
Jan 2020Nov 20204036.3%+11.8%-69.0%
Nov 2021Ongoing240+75.6%Ongoing-69.1%
Average38+-5.8%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is MATV below its 200-week moving average?

Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Mativ Holdings, Inc. (MATV) is trading 40.0% below its 200-week moving average of $13.21. The current price is $7.92.

What is MATV's 200-week moving average price?

Mativ Holdings, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $13.21 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when MATV drops below its 200-week moving average?

MATV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -5.8%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 38 weeks on average.

Is MATV a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about MATV as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 44. Free cash flow yield is 34.3%. Return on equity is 17.0%. Price-to-book is 0.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does MATV compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 29.8 years, $100 invested in MATV would have grown to $135, compared to $1758 for the S&P 500. That's 1.0% annualized vs 10.1% for the index. MATV has underperformed the broader market over this period.

Does MATV pay a dividend?

Yes. Mativ Holdings, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 492.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-06-19