MAT
Mattel, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Leisure Investor Relations →
Mattel, Inc. (MAT) closed at $14.04 as of 2026-06-19, trading 24.6% below its 200-week moving average of $18.63. This places MAT in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -21.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 35, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.98 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2561 weeks of data, MAT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 37 times. On average, these episodes lasted 27 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MAT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +0.9%.
With a market cap of $4.1 billion, MAT is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.6%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 23.6%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 1.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 15.0% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MAT would have grown to $198, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. MAT has returned 2.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MAT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MAT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying MAT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -7.0% after 12 months (median -2.0%), compared to +10.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 35% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -0.3% vs +22.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MAT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MAT would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MAT's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-22.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $10.61 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $11.88 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $13.50 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $15.61 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $18.52 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MAT's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MAT has crossed below its 200-week MA 37 times with an average 1-year return of +0.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1978 | Mar 1979 | 21 | 9.2% | -6.6% | +1290.2% |
| May 1979 | Jun 1979 | 1 | 1.5% | +6.3% | +1246.0% |
| Oct 1979 | Jan 1980 | 15 | 13.7% | +73.8% | +1290.2% |
| Mar 1980 | May 1980 | 11 | 18.1% | +21.9% | +1225.0% |
| Jun 1980 | Jul 1980 | 4 | 3.2% | +19.0% | +1246.0% |
| Feb 1981 | Feb 1981 | 1 | 2.6% | +53.5% | +1094.4% |
| Mar 1981 | Nov 1981 | 36 | 30.0% | +98.5% | +1147.1% |
| Jun 1983 | Aug 1984 | 61 | 56.0% | -27.3% | +819.0% |
| Dec 1984 | Jan 1985 | 2 | 11.0% | +10.5% | +855.3% |
| Nov 1985 | Mar 1986 | 18 | 11.8% | -12.1% | +729.8% |
| Jul 1986 | Jan 1987 | 27 | 27.3% | +4.2% | +764.8% |
| Mar 1987 | May 1987 | 6 | 11.9% | -36.5% | +866.5% |
| May 1987 | May 1987 | 1 | 2.9% | -31.4% | +855.3% |
| Jun 1987 | Jul 1987 | 3 | 4.5% | -24.7% | +866.5% |
| Oct 1987 | Mar 1989 | 73 | 44.1% | -1.3% | +981.0% |
| Dec 1998 | Mar 2002 | 169 | 67.8% | -47.3% | +7.0% |
| Jul 2002 | Aug 2002 | 2 | 0.8% | +14.5% | +39.3% |
| Oct 2002 | Oct 2002 | 1 | 7.5% | +27.8% | +55.7% |
| Apr 2004 | Jun 2004 | 7 | 4.3% | +9.0% | +43.0% |
| Jul 2004 | Nov 2004 | 20 | 12.2% | +12.4% | +42.6% |
| Apr 2005 | Jul 2005 | 10 | 4.5% | -7.6% | +31.1% |
| Jul 2005 | Mar 2006 | 35 | 20.7% | -0.8% | +28.8% |
| Apr 2006 | Jul 2006 | 15 | 10.2% | +75.5% | +32.0% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 3 | 7.7% | -0.4% | +21.4% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 4 | 9.2% | -7.6% | +14.4% |
| Sep 2008 | Aug 2009 | 48 | 39.1% | +2.6% | +13.0% |
| Sep 2014 | Feb 2016 | 73 | 37.5% | -22.2% | -46.4% |
| Apr 2016 | May 2016 | 4 | 2.5% | -24.1% | -51.3% |
| Jun 2016 | Jun 2016 | 1 | 4.0% | -26.6% | -49.7% |
| Sep 2016 | Oct 2016 | 3 | 2.4% | -46.1% | -51.1% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2020 | 211 | 58.4% | -54.6% | -51.4% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 3 | 4.4% | +18.5% | -15.9% |
| Jan 2024 | Jan 2024 | 4 | 4.2% | -1.3% | -22.8% |
| Apr 2024 | Feb 2025 | 43 | 17.9% | -18.4% | -23.8% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 16 | 25.6% | -18.7% | -28.9% |
| Jul 2025 | Nov 2025 | 18 | 14.8% | N/A | -27.6% |
| Feb 2026 | Ongoing | 19+ | 25.2% | Ongoing | -14.8% |
| Average | 27 | — | +0.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MAT below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Mattel, Inc. (MAT) is trading 24.6% below its 200-week moving average of $18.63. The current price is $14.04.
What is MAT's 200-week moving average price?
Mattel, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $18.63 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MAT drops below its 200-week moving average?
MAT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 37 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +0.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 27 weeks on average.
Is MAT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MAT as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 35. Free cash flow yield is 7.6%. Return on equity is 23.6%. Price-to-book is 1.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MAT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in MAT would have grown to $198, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 2.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MAT has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19