MAT
Mattel, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Leisure Investor Relations →
Mattel, Inc. (MAT) closed at $21.49 as of 2026-02-02, trading 10.7% above its 200-week moving average of $19.42. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 7.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 71, MAT is in overbought territory.
Over the past 2542 weeks of data, MAT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 36 times. On average, these episodes lasted 27 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MAT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +1.5%.
With a market cap of $6.9 billion, MAT is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.4%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 18.9%, a solid level. The stock trades at 3.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.9% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MAT would have grown to $303, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. MAT has returned 3.4% annualized vs 10.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Growth of $100: MAT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MAT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying MAT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -6.6% after 12 months (median -2.0%), compared to +9.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 37% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +0.8% vs +21.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MAT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
MAT has crossed below its 200-week MA 36 times with an average 1-year return of +1.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1978 | Mar 1979 | 21 | 9.2% | -6.6% | +2027.8% |
| May 1979 | Jun 1979 | 1 | 1.5% | +6.3% | +1960.3% |
| Oct 1979 | Jan 1980 | 15 | 13.7% | +73.8% | +2027.8% |
| Mar 1980 | May 1980 | 11 | 18.1% | +21.9% | +1928.1% |
| Jun 1980 | Jul 1980 | 4 | 3.2% | +19.0% | +1960.3% |
| Feb 1981 | Feb 1981 | 1 | 2.6% | +53.5% | +1728.1% |
| Mar 1981 | Nov 1981 | 36 | 30.0% | +98.5% | +1808.8% |
| Jun 1983 | Aug 1984 | 61 | 56.0% | -27.3% | +1306.7% |
| Dec 1984 | Jan 1985 | 2 | 11.0% | +10.5% | +1362.2% |
| Nov 1985 | Mar 1986 | 18 | 11.8% | -12.1% | +1170.2% |
| Jul 1986 | Jan 1987 | 27 | 27.3% | +4.2% | +1223.6% |
| Mar 1987 | May 1987 | 6 | 11.9% | -36.5% | +1379.4% |
| May 1987 | May 1987 | 1 | 2.9% | -31.4% | +1362.2% |
| Jun 1987 | Jul 1987 | 3 | 4.5% | -24.7% | +1379.4% |
| Oct 1987 | Mar 1989 | 73 | 44.1% | -1.3% | +1554.6% |
| Dec 1998 | Mar 2002 | 169 | 67.8% | -47.3% | +63.8% |
| Jul 2002 | Aug 2002 | 2 | 0.8% | +14.5% | +113.3% |
| Oct 2002 | Oct 2002 | 1 | 7.5% | +27.8% | +138.3% |
| Apr 2004 | Jun 2004 | 7 | 4.3% | +9.0% | +118.8% |
| Jul 2004 | Nov 2004 | 20 | 12.2% | +12.4% | +118.2% |
| Apr 2005 | Jul 2005 | 10 | 4.5% | -7.6% | +100.7% |
| Jul 2005 | Mar 2006 | 35 | 20.7% | -0.8% | +97.1% |
| Apr 2006 | Jul 2006 | 15 | 10.2% | +75.5% | +102.1% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 3 | 7.7% | -0.4% | +85.9% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 4 | 9.2% | -7.6% | +75.1% |
| Sep 2008 | Aug 2009 | 48 | 39.1% | +2.6% | +73.0% |
| Sep 2014 | Feb 2016 | 73 | 37.5% | -22.2% | -17.9% |
| Apr 2016 | May 2016 | 4 | 2.5% | -24.1% | -25.4% |
| Jun 2016 | Jun 2016 | 1 | 4.0% | -26.6% | -23.0% |
| Sep 2016 | Oct 2016 | 3 | 2.4% | -46.1% | -25.2% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2020 | 211 | 58.4% | -54.6% | -25.6% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 3 | 4.4% | +18.5% | +28.7% |
| Jan 2024 | Jan 2024 | 4 | 4.2% | -1.3% | +18.2% |
| Apr 2024 | Feb 2025 | 43 | 17.9% | -18.4% | +16.6% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 16 | 25.6% | N/A | +8.8% |
| Jul 2025 | Nov 2025 | 18 | 14.8% | N/A | +10.9% |
| Average | 27 | — | +1.5% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02