MARA
Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. Technology - Bitcoin Mining Investor Relations →
Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. (MARA) closed at $8.24 as of 2026-02-02, trading 42.3% below its 200-week moving average of $14.27. This places MARA in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -33.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 21, MARA is in oversold territory.
Over the past 670 weeks of data, MARA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times. On average, these episodes lasted 41 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -14.1%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $3.1 billion, MARA is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.1%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 23.1%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 0.6x book value.
Share count has increased 231.2% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 12.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MARA would have grown to $18, compared to $539 for the S&P 500. MARA has returned -12.4% annualized vs 13.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: MARA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MARA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying MARA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -4.6% after 12 months (median +1.0%), compared to +15.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +27.8% vs +38.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MARA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
MARA has crossed below its 200-week MA 12 times with an average 1-year return of +-14.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2013 | May 2014 | 58 | 58.2% | +29.6% | -79.1% |
| Jun 2015 | Nov 2020 | 287 | 96.0% | -42.8% | -89.4% |
| May 2022 | Aug 2022 | 12 | 57.7% | -21.7% | -27.7% |
| Aug 2022 | Jul 2023 | 46 | 75.7% | -14.4% | -37.5% |
| Aug 2023 | Dec 2023 | 17 | 50.9% | +14.4% | -44.6% |
| Jan 2024 | Jan 2024 | 1 | 3.5% | +23.4% | -48.9% |
| Apr 2024 | May 2024 | 5 | 10.3% | -22.3% | -48.9% |
| Jul 2024 | Nov 2024 | 15 | 32.2% | -9.8% | -52.1% |
| Dec 2024 | Jan 2025 | 4 | 9.7% | -49.0% | -58.7% |
| Jan 2025 | Jun 2025 | 22 | 39.4% | -48.2% | -55.1% |
| Jul 2025 | Sep 2025 | 7 | 10.2% | N/A | -52.2% |
| Nov 2025 | Ongoing | 13+ | 42.3% | Ongoing | -31.3% |
| Average | 41 | — | +-14.1% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02