MAR
Marriott International Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Hotels Investor Relations →
Marriott International Inc. (MAR) closed at $396.20 as of 2026-06-19, trading 67.2% above its 200-week moving average of $236.99. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 70.7% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 78, MAR is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.96 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1425 weeks of data, MAR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MAR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +18.8%.
With a market cap of $104.5 billion, MAR is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.7%. The stock trades at -25.6x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 14.4% over the past three years.
Over the past 27.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MAR would have grown to $3166, compared to $938 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.5% vs 8.5% for the index — confirming MAR as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 8.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MAR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MAR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying MAR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +31.8% after 12 months (median +30.0%), compared to +10.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +53.2% vs +17.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MAR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MAR would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MAR's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $325.90 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $339.46 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $354.20 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $370.28 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $387.89 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MAR's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MAR has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +18.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1999 | Oct 1999 | 5 | 7.4% | +14.4% | +3193.9% |
| Nov 1999 | May 2000 | 27 | 17.9% | +20.6% | +3182.0% |
| Sep 2001 | Nov 2001 | 8 | 16.6% | -4.0% | +3483.5% |
| Jul 2002 | May 2003 | 43 | 24.3% | +9.0% | +2808.9% |
| May 2003 | May 2003 | 1 | 0.2% | +33.8% | +2800.5% |
| Dec 2007 | Mar 2010 | 120 | 63.6% | -46.5% | +1532.4% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 3 | 5.8% | +25.7% | +1582.9% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 9 | 10.1% | +40.7% | +1647.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 35 | 46.7% | +57.1% | +331.4% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 0.6% | +37.0% | +254.6% |
| Average | 25 | — | +18.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MAR below its 200-week moving average?
No. Marriott International Inc. (MAR) is currently 67.2% above its 200-week moving average of $236.99. It would need to fall to $236.99 to cross below the line.
What is MAR's 200-week moving average price?
Marriott International Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $236.99 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MAR drops below its 200-week moving average?
MAR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +18.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is MAR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MAR as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 78 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 1.7%. Price-to-book is -25.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MAR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 27.3 years, $100 invested in MAR would have grown to $3166, compared to $938 for the S&P 500. That's 13.5% annualized vs 8.5% for the index. MAR has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MAR pay a dividend?
Yes. Marriott International Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 73.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19