MAA

Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. Real Estate - REIT - Residential Investor Relations →

YES
1.0% BELOW
↓ Approaching Was 3.7% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $133.81
14-Week RSI 59
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 1.2x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 1.13

Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) closed at $132.50 as of 2026-06-19, trading 1.0% below its 200-week moving average of $133.81. This places MAA in the below line zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 3.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 59, indicating neutral momentum.

Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.13 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 1642 weeks of data, MAA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times. On average, these episodes lasted 10 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MAA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.9%.

With a market cap of $15.8 billion, MAA is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.8%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 6.7%. The stock trades at 2.8x book value.

Over the past 31.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MAA would have grown to $2986, compared to $2745 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.4% vs 11.1% for the index — confirming MAA as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.

Free cash flow has been declining at a -2% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: MAA vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After MAA Crosses Below the Line?

Across 18 historical episodes, buying MAA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +11.2% after 12 months (median +10.0%), compared to +15.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 65% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +36.9% vs +18.7% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MAA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MAA would reach each dislocation threshold.

Current Bean Score -2.02σ
Current FCF Yield 4.28%
Baseline Yield 4.77%
Historical σ 0.27pp

Dislocation Price Levels

Prices where MAA's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-29.

LevelσPriceSignal
Deep Value+2σ$109.35Unusually cheap — potential buy zone
Value+1σ$115.23Cheap vs. own history
Fair Value+0σ$121.78Historical mean behavior
Expensive-1σ$129.12Expensive vs. own history
Deep Expensive-2σ$137.40Unusually expensive — potential trim zone

Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end

Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 22 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

11 / 13 weeks minimum

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

Dislocation Scores Experimental

Each score measures deviation from MAA's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.

Yield Dislocation +0.66σ Dividend yield vs own 10-yr norm
Drawdown Score +1.12σ Distance from line vs own history
Sector-Relative N/A Vs sector median this week
Buyback Acceleration -0.4pp YoY share change vs own 3-yr pace (− = accelerating)
Insider Intensity 23th TTM buys / market cap, percentile of buyers
FCF Yield vs History +0.8pp Vs own recent annual mean
Earnings Quality Stable Accrual gap trend (-2.6pp of revenue)

Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.

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Historical Touches

MAA has crossed below its 200-week MA 19 times with an average 1-year return of +11.9% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Oct 1995Dec 199562.6%+17.8%+2974.5%
Dec 1998Jan 199910.6%+10.1%+2345.2%
Feb 1999Mar 199930.8%+10.8%+2326.4%
Mar 1999Apr 199946.7%+12.7%+2340.1%
Jun 1999Jun 199910.0%+15.8%+2276.8%
Jul 1999Aug 199962.9%+19.8%+2338.5%
Sep 1999Oct 199922.8%+23.3%+2311.6%
Dec 2007Jan 2008510.6%-7.2%+552.4%
Sep 2008Sep 20094947.4%+3.5%+496.7%
Sep 2009Oct 200930.5%+41.8%+476.5%
Mar 2020Apr 2020312.3%+67.4%+89.3%
Mar 2023Mar 202321.9%-6.6%+4.5%
May 2023May 202310.6%-4.8%+3.0%
Jun 2023Jun 202311.3%+0.9%+3.2%
Jul 2023Jul 20245219.9%+7.9%+2.6%
Jan 2025Jan 202531.8%-4.4%-4.6%
Jun 2025Jun 202520.8%-6.7%-6.7%
Jul 2025Jun 20264411.8%N/A-2.0%
Jun 2026Ongoing1+1.0%OngoingN/A
Average10+11.9%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is MAA below its 200-week moving average?

Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) is trading 1.0% below its 200-week moving average of $133.81. The current price is $132.50.

What is MAA's 200-week moving average price?

Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $133.81 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when MAA drops below its 200-week moving average?

MAA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 10 weeks on average.

Is MAA a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about MAA as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 59. Free cash flow yield is 5.8%. Return on equity is 6.7%. Price-to-book is 2.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does MAA compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 31.5 years, $100 invested in MAA would have grown to $2986, compared to $2745 for the S&P 500. That's 11.4% annualized vs 11.1% for the index. MAA has outperformed the broader market over this period.

Does MAA pay a dividend?

Yes. Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 449.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-06-19