MAA
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. Real Estate - REIT - Residential Investor Relations →
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) closed at $132.34 as of 2026-07-31, trading 0.1% above its 200-week moving average of $132.24. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 1.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 58, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.94 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1648 weeks of data, MAA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times. On average, these episodes lasted 10 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MAA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.3%.
With a market cap of $15.8 billion, MAA is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.8%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 6.7%. The stock trades at 2.8x book value.
Over the past 31.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MAA would have grown to $3017, compared to $2746 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.4% vs 11.1% for the index — confirming MAA as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -2% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MAA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MAA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying MAA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.9% after 12 months (median +10.0%), compared to +15.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 61% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +36.9% vs +18.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MAA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MAA would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MAA's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $108.92 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $116.06 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $124.20 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $133.56 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $144.45 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MAA's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MAA has crossed below its 200-week MA 19 times with an average 1-year return of +11.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1995 | Dec 1995 | 6 | 2.7% | +20.1% | +3006.4% |
| Dec 1998 | Jan 1999 | 1 | 0.7% | +10.1% | +2370.5% |
| Feb 1999 | Mar 1999 | 3 | 1.0% | +10.8% | +2351.5% |
| Mar 1999 | Apr 1999 | 4 | 6.8% | +12.7% | +2365.3% |
| Jun 1999 | Jun 1999 | 1 | 0.2% | +15.8% | +2301.5% |
| Jul 1999 | Aug 1999 | 6 | 2.3% | +19.6% | +2301.5% |
| Sep 1999 | Oct 1999 | 2 | 3.0% | +23.3% | +2336.6% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 5 | 10.7% | -7.2% | +559.2% |
| Sep 2008 | Sep 2009 | 49 | 47.4% | +3.5% | +502.9% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 1 | 0.3% | +41.8% | +482.5% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 12.4% | +67.4% | +91.2% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 2 | 2.0% | -6.6% | +5.6% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 1 | 0.6% | -4.8% | +4.1% |
| Jun 2023 | Jun 2023 | 1 | 1.4% | +0.9% | +4.3% |
| Jul 2023 | Jul 2024 | 52 | 20.0% | +7.9% | +3.7% |
| Jan 2025 | Jan 2025 | 3 | 1.8% | -4.4% | -3.6% |
| Jun 2025 | Jun 2025 | 2 | 0.9% | -6.7% | -5.7% |
| Jul 2025 | Jun 2026 | 44 | 11.9% | -1.0% | -1.0% |
| Jun 2026 | Jun 2026 | 1 | 1.1% | N/A | +1.0% |
| Average | 10 | — | +11.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MAA below its 200-week moving average?
No. Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) is currently 0.1% above its 200-week moving average of $132.24. It would need to fall to $132.24 to cross below the line.
What is MAA's 200-week moving average price?
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $132.24 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MAA drops below its 200-week moving average?
MAA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 10 weeks on average.
Is MAA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MAA as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 58. Free cash flow yield is 5.8%. Return on equity is 6.7%. Price-to-book is 2.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MAA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 31.6 years, $100 invested in MAA would have grown to $3017, compared to $2746 for the S&P 500. That's 11.4% annualized vs 11.1% for the index. MAA has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MAA pay a dividend?
Yes. Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 445.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31