MAA
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. Real Estate - REIT - Residential Investor Relations →
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) closed at $118.93 as of 2026-09-18, trading 10.0% below its 200-week moving average of $132.19. This places MAA in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -5.7% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 29, MAA is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.90 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1655 weeks of data, MAA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times. On average, these episodes lasted 10 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MAA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.3%.
With a market cap of $14.1 billion, MAA is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.5%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 7.0%. The stock trades at 2.5x book value.
Over the past 31.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MAA would have grown to $2711, compared to $2807 for the S&P 500. MAA has returned 11.0% annualized vs 11.1% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -2% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MAA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MAA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying MAA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.9% after 12 months (median +10.0%), compared to +15.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 61% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +36.9% vs +18.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MAA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MAA would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MAA's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $119.63 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $129.56 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $141.28 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $155.33 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $172.49 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | $0.78 | $1.04 | +33.8% |
| 2026-04-29 | $0.84 | $1.06 | +26.4% |
| 2026-02-04 | $0.90 | $0.92 | +2.6% |
| 2025-10-29 | $0.85 | $0.85 | +0.4% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MAA's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MAA has crossed below its 200-week MA 20 times with an average 1-year return of +11.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1995 | Dec 1995 | 6 | 2.7% | +20.1% | +2691.6% |
| Dec 1998 | Jan 1999 | 1 | 0.7% | +10.1% | +2120.2% |
| Feb 1999 | Mar 1999 | 3 | 1.0% | +10.8% | +2103.1% |
| Mar 1999 | Apr 1999 | 4 | 6.8% | +12.7% | +2115.5% |
| Jun 1999 | Jun 1999 | 1 | 0.2% | +15.8% | +2058.1% |
| Jul 1999 | Aug 1999 | 6 | 2.3% | +19.6% | +2058.1% |
| Sep 1999 | Oct 1999 | 2 | 3.0% | +23.3% | +2089.7% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 5 | 10.7% | -7.2% | +492.4% |
| Sep 2008 | Sep 2009 | 49 | 47.4% | +3.5% | +441.8% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 1 | 0.3% | +41.8% | +423.5% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 12.4% | +67.4% | +71.9% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 2 | 2.0% | -6.6% | -5.1% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 1 | 0.6% | -4.8% | -6.5% |
| Jun 2023 | Jun 2023 | 1 | 1.4% | +0.9% | -6.3% |
| Jul 2023 | Jul 2024 | 52 | 20.0% | +7.9% | -6.8% |
| Jan 2025 | Jan 2025 | 3 | 1.8% | -4.4% | -13.4% |
| Jun 2025 | Jun 2025 | 2 | 0.9% | -6.7% | -15.3% |
| Jul 2025 | Jun 2026 | 44 | 11.9% | -1.0% | -11.0% |
| Jun 2026 | Jun 2026 | 1 | 1.1% | N/A | -9.2% |
| Aug 2026 | Ongoing | 5+ | 10.0% | Ongoing | -9.4% |
| Average | 10 | — | +11.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MAA below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) is trading 10.0% below its 200-week moving average of $132.19. The current price is $118.93.
What is MAA's 200-week moving average price?
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $132.19 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MAA drops below its 200-week moving average?
MAA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 10 weeks on average.
Is MAA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MAA as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 29 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 6.5%. Return on equity is 7.0%. Price-to-book is 2.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MAA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 31.8 years, $100 invested in MAA would have grown to $2711, compared to $2807 for the S&P 500. That's 11.0% annualized vs 11.1% for the index. MAA has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MAA pay a dividend?
Yes. Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 515.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18