M
Macy's Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Department Stores Investor Relations →
Macy's Inc. (M) closed at $21.94 as of 2026-09-18, trading 35.2% above its 200-week moving average of $16.22. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 35.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 40, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.11 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1758 weeks of data, M has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -8.6%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $5.7 billion, M is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 10.6%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 16.0%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.2x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in M would have grown to $427, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. M has returned 4.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 29.2% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: M vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After M Crosses Below the Line?
Across 25 historical episodes, buying M when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -8.2% after 12 months (median -9.0%), compared to +3.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 32% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -12.9% vs +14.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment M crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices M would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where M's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-12-02.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $20.06 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $22.91 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $26.71 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $32.03 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $39.98 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | $0.37 | $0.40 | +8.7% |
| 2026-06-03 | $0.03 | $0.13 | +360.0% |
| 2026-03-18 | $1.56 | $1.67 | +6.8% |
| 2025-12-03 | $-0.13 | $0.09 | +168.2% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from M's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
M has crossed below its 200-week MA 25 times with an average 1-year return of +-8.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1994 | Jan 1995 | 8 | 5.4% | +51.7% | +373.4% |
| Sep 1998 | Oct 1998 | 1 | 1.3% | +29.4% | +151.2% |
| Jan 2000 | Jan 2001 | 52 | 42.3% | +0.6% | +109.0% |
| Feb 2001 | Feb 2001 | 1 | 1.6% | -6.1% | +111.4% |
| Mar 2001 | Apr 2001 | 3 | 2.4% | -1.7% | +109.4% |
| Jun 2001 | Jun 2001 | 2 | 3.8% | -2.9% | +105.3% |
| Jul 2001 | Feb 2002 | 34 | 35.8% | +7.2% | +127.5% |
| Apr 2002 | Apr 2002 | 1 | 2.4% | -28.2% | +120.0% |
| Apr 2002 | May 2002 | 2 | 2.1% | -26.8% | +118.0% |
| Jun 2002 | Jun 2003 | 53 | 38.0% | -9.4% | +119.7% |
| Aug 2007 | Oct 2007 | 7 | 8.0% | -29.0% | +33.7% |
| Oct 2007 | Sep 2010 | 153 | 81.7% | -66.7% | +36.1% |
| Oct 2015 | Jun 2018 | 137 | 56.3% | -20.8% | -26.4% |
| Jul 2018 | Jul 2018 | 2 | 1.2% | -37.8% | -16.2% |
| Aug 2018 | Aug 2018 | 1 | 1.5% | -53.1% | -14.2% |
| Sep 2018 | Oct 2018 | 8 | 8.6% | -54.2% | -12.9% |
| Nov 2018 | Mar 2021 | 121 | 78.9% | -45.9% | -8.1% |
| Mar 2021 | May 2021 | 8 | 13.7% | +62.7% | +63.3% |
| May 2021 | Jun 2021 | 3 | 2.5% | +35.4% | +49.5% |
| Jul 2021 | Aug 2021 | 3 | 8.3% | +0.8% | +58.3% |
| Jul 2022 | Jul 2022 | 1 | 4.6% | -2.9% | +57.1% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 3 | 5.9% | -30.5% | +54.7% |
| May 2023 | Jul 2023 | 12 | 11.4% | +32.4% | +65.5% |
| Aug 2023 | Nov 2023 | 16 | 33.1% | +4.1% | +61.6% |
| Jul 2024 | Sep 2025 | 59 | 35.8% | -23.1% | +47.7% |
| Average | 28 | — | +-8.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is M below its 200-week moving average?
No. Macy's Inc. (M) is currently 35.2% above its 200-week moving average of $16.22. It would need to fall to $16.22 to cross below the line.
What is M's 200-week moving average price?
Macy's Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $16.22 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when M drops below its 200-week moving average?
M has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -8.6%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 28 weeks on average.
Is M a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about M as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 40. Free cash flow yield is 10.6%. Return on equity is 16.0%. Price-to-book is 1.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does M compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in M would have grown to $427, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 4.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. M has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does M pay a dividend?
Yes. Macy's Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 354.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18