M
Macy's Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Department Stores Investor Relations →
Macy's Inc. (M) closed at $17.87 as of 2026-03-20, trading 13.5% above its 200-week moving average of $15.74. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 7.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 32, indicating neutral momentum.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.4x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 1732 weeks of data, M has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -8.6%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $4.8 billion, M is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 17.1%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 13.6%. The stock trades at 1.0x book value.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in M would have grown to $342, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. M has returned 3.8% annualized vs 10.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -42.8% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: M vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After M Crosses Below the Line?
Across 25 historical episodes, buying M when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -8.2% after 12 months (median -9.0%), compared to +3.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 32% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -16.3% vs +13.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment M crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
M has crossed below its 200-week MA 25 times with an average 1-year return of +-8.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1994 | Jan 1995 | 8 | 5.4% | +51.7% | +279.4% |
| Sep 1998 | Oct 1998 | 1 | 1.3% | +29.4% | +101.4% |
| Jan 2000 | Jan 2001 | 52 | 42.3% | +0.6% | +67.5% |
| Feb 2001 | Feb 2001 | 1 | 1.6% | -6.1% | +69.4% |
| Mar 2001 | Apr 2001 | 3 | 2.4% | -1.7% | +67.8% |
| Jun 2001 | Jun 2001 | 2 | 3.8% | -2.9% | +64.5% |
| Jul 2001 | Feb 2002 | 34 | 35.8% | +7.2% | +82.3% |
| Apr 2002 | Apr 2002 | 1 | 2.4% | -28.2% | +76.3% |
| Apr 2002 | May 2002 | 2 | 2.1% | -26.8% | +74.7% |
| Jun 2002 | Jun 2003 | 53 | 38.0% | -9.4% | +76.1% |
| Aug 2007 | Oct 2007 | 7 | 8.0% | -29.0% | +7.2% |
| Oct 2007 | Sep 2010 | 153 | 81.7% | -66.7% | +9.1% |
| Oct 2015 | Jun 2018 | 137 | 56.3% | -20.8% | -41.0% |
| Jul 2018 | Jul 2018 | 2 | 1.2% | -37.8% | -32.8% |
| Aug 2018 | Aug 2018 | 1 | 1.4% | -53.1% | -31.2% |
| Sep 2018 | Oct 2018 | 8 | 8.6% | -54.2% | -30.2% |
| Nov 2018 | Mar 2021 | 121 | 78.8% | -45.9% | -26.3% |
| Mar 2021 | May 2021 | 8 | 13.6% | +62.7% | +30.9% |
| May 2021 | Jun 2021 | 3 | 2.4% | +35.4% | +19.8% |
| Jul 2021 | Aug 2021 | 3 | 8.3% | +0.8% | +26.9% |
| Jul 2022 | Jul 2022 | 1 | 4.6% | -2.9% | +25.9% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 3 | 5.8% | -30.9% | +25.2% |
| May 2023 | Jul 2023 | 11 | 11.4% | +32.4% | +32.7% |
| Aug 2023 | Nov 2023 | 16 | 33.1% | +4.1% | +29.5% |
| Jul 2024 | Sep 2025 | 59 | 35.8% | -23.1% | +18.4% |
| Average | 28 | — | +-8.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is M below its 200-week moving average?
No. Macy's Inc. (M) is currently 13.5% above its 200-week moving average of $15.74. It would need to fall to $15.74 to cross below the line.
What is M's 200-week moving average price?
Macy's Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $15.74 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when M drops below its 200-week moving average?
M has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -8.6%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 28 weeks on average.
Is M a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about M as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 32. Free cash flow yield is 17.1%. Return on equity is 13.6%. Price-to-book is 1.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does M compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.2 years, $100 invested in M would have grown to $342, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. That's 3.8% annualized vs 10.4% for the index. M has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does M pay a dividend?
Yes. Macy's Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 429.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20