M

Macy's Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Department Stores Investor Relations →

NO
42.6% ABOVE
↑ Moving away Was 25.9% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $15.92
14-Week RSI 63

Macy's Inc. (M) closed at $22.70 as of 2026-02-02, trading 42.6% above its 200-week moving average of $15.92. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 25.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 63, indicating neutral momentum.

Over the past 1726 weeks of data, M has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -8.6%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.

With a market cap of $6.0 billion, M is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 14.9%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 11.3%. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.

Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in M would have grown to $430, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. M has returned 4.5% annualized vs 10.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.

Free cash flow has been declining at a -42.8% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.

Growth of $100: M vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After M Crosses Below the Line?

Across 25 historical episodes, buying M when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -8.2% after 12 months (median -9.0%), compared to +3.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 32% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -16.3% vs +13.6% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment M crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

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Historical Touches

M has crossed below its 200-week MA 25 times with an average 1-year return of +-8.6% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Dec 1994Jan 199585.4%+51.7%+376.6%
Sep 1998Oct 199811.3%+29.4%+152.9%
Jan 2000Jan 20015242.3%+0.6%+110.4%
Feb 2001Feb 200111.6%-6.1%+112.8%
Mar 2001Apr 200132.4%-1.7%+110.8%
Jun 2001Jun 200123.8%-2.9%+106.7%
Jul 2001Feb 20023435.8%+7.2%+129.0%
Apr 2002Apr 200212.4%-28.2%+121.4%
Apr 2002May 200222.1%-26.8%+119.4%
Jun 2002Jun 20035338.0%-9.4%+121.1%
Aug 2007Oct 200778.0%-29.0%+34.6%
Oct 2007Sep 201015381.7%-66.7%+37.0%
Oct 2015Jun 201813756.3%-20.8%-25.9%
Jul 2018Jul 201821.2%-37.8%-15.6%
Aug 2018Aug 201811.4%-53.1%-13.6%
Sep 2018Oct 201888.6%-54.2%-12.3%
Nov 2018Mar 202112178.8%-45.9%-7.5%
Mar 2021May 2021813.6%+62.7%+64.4%
May 2021Jun 202132.4%+35.4%+50.5%
Jul 2021Aug 202138.3%+0.8%+59.4%
Jul 2022Jul 202214.6%-2.9%+58.2%
Sep 2022Oct 202235.8%-30.9%+57.2%
May 2023Jul 20231111.4%+32.4%+66.6%
Aug 2023Nov 20231633.1%+4.1%+62.7%
Jul 2024Sep 20255935.8%-23.1%+48.7%
Average28+-8.6%

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02