LYB
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Materials - Chemicals Investor Relations →
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) closed at $62.08 as of 2026-07-31, trading 10.0% below its 200-week moving average of $69.00. This places LYB in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -12.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 42, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.11 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 800 weeks of data, LYB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 10 weeks. Historically, investors who bought LYB at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +19.7%.
Return on equity stands at -6.0%. The stock trades at 2.0x book value.
Over the past 15.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LYB would have grown to $350, compared to $716 for the S&P 500. LYB has returned 8.5% annualized vs 13.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -55.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: LYB vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After LYB Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying LYB when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +22.4% after 12 months (median +18.0%), compared to +16.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +68.5% vs +44.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LYB crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices LYB would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where LYB's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $54.06 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $64.27 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $79.22 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $103.25 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $148.19 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from LYB's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
LYB has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +19.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 6.5% | +107.5% | +451.4% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 4 | 18.5% | +118.7% | +441.9% |
| Jun 2016 | Jul 2016 | 3 | 2.8% | +11.5% | +46.2% |
| Jul 2016 | Aug 2016 | 3 | 4.0% | +24.5% | +45.5% |
| Sep 2016 | Sep 2016 | 3 | 1.8% | +25.2% | +42.2% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 1 | 0.6% | +40.1% | +38.1% |
| May 2017 | Jun 2017 | 7 | 1.6% | +44.5% | +31.1% |
| Dec 2018 | Feb 2019 | 10 | 8.6% | +15.7% | +17.7% |
| Feb 2019 | Mar 2019 | 1 | 0.9% | -11.4% | +15.4% |
| Mar 2019 | Apr 2019 | 2 | 1.9% | -47.9% | +15.4% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 5 | 13.4% | -28.0% | +18.7% |
| Jul 2019 | Sep 2019 | 6 | 18.8% | -13.3% | +27.2% |
| Jan 2020 | Nov 2020 | 42 | 49.6% | +16.5% | +21.3% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 2 | 4.9% | +36.9% | +7.8% |
| Nov 2024 | Mar 2026 | 70 | 42.8% | -45.3% | -16.9% |
| Apr 2026 | Apr 2026 | 2 | 5.2% | N/A | -5.3% |
| May 2026 | Ongoing | 11+ | 22.7% | Ongoing | -10.0% |
| Average | 10 | — | +19.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LYB below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) is trading 10.0% below its 200-week moving average of $69.00. The current price is $62.08.
What is LYB's 200-week moving average price?
LyondellBasell Industries N.V.'s 200-week moving average is $69.00 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when LYB drops below its 200-week moving average?
LYB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +19.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 10 weeks on average.
Is LYB a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about LYB as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 42. Return on equity is -6.0%. Price-to-book is 2.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does LYB compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 15.3 years, $100 invested in LYB would have grown to $350, compared to $716 for the S&P 500. That's 8.5% annualized vs 13.7% for the index. LYB has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does LYB pay a dividend?
Yes. LyondellBasell Industries N.V. currently pays a dividend yield of 682.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31