LW
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. Consumer Defensive - Packaged Foods Investor Relations →
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) closed at $46.67 as of 2026-09-18, trading 33.3% below its 200-week moving average of $69.99. This places LW in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -31.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 54, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.13 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 466 weeks of data, LW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 35 weeks. Historically, investors who bought LW at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +20.0%.
With a market cap of $6.4 billion, LW is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.1%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 16.3%, a solid level. The stock trades at 3.5x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.6% over the past three years.
Over the past 9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LW would have grown to $103, compared to $340 for the S&P 500. LW has returned 0.4% annualized vs 14.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 7 open-market purchases totaling $19,415,601. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects. Notably, these purchases occurred while LW is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 71.2% compound annual rate, with 2 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: LW vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After LW Crosses Below the Line?
Across 5 historical episodes, buying LW when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +11.0% after 12 months (median +13.0%), compared to +23.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +13.8% vs +40.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LW crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices LW would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where LW's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-06.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $33.67 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $37.71 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $42.86 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $49.63 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $58.94 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.63 | $0.87 | +39.1% |
| 2026-04-01 | $0.61 | $0.72 | +17.4% |
| 2025-12-19 | $0.65 | $0.69 | +6.4% |
| 2025-09-30 | $0.53 | $0.74 | +38.7% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from LW's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
LW has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +20.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2020 | Jun 2020 | 11 | 21.6% | +70.8% | +10.3% |
| Jul 2020 | Aug 2020 | 1 | 0.8% | +12.6% | -12.9% |
| Jul 2021 | Jun 2022 | 47 | 27.2% | +21.1% | -22.7% |
| Apr 2024 | Apr 2024 | 2 | 0.2% | -24.5% | -37.6% |
| Jul 2024 | Ongoing | 115+ | 47.0% | Ongoing | -37.2% |
| Average | 35 | — | +20.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LW below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) is trading 33.3% below its 200-week moving average of $69.99. The current price is $46.67.
What is LW's 200-week moving average price?
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $69.99 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when LW drops below its 200-week moving average?
LW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +20.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 35 weeks on average.
Is LW a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about LW as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 54. Free cash flow yield is 7.1%. Return on equity is 16.3%. Price-to-book is 3.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does LW compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 9 years, $100 invested in LW would have grown to $103, compared to $340 for the S&P 500. That's 0.4% annualized vs 14.6% for the index. LW has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does LW pay a dividend?
Yes. Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 326.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18