LUV

Southwest Airlines Co. Industrials - Airlines Investor Relations →

NO
51.4% ABOVE
↑ Moving away Was 45.1% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $31.68
14-Week RSI 63
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 1.1x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 1.08

Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) closed at $47.97 as of 2026-06-19, trading 51.4% above its 200-week moving average of $31.68. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 45.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 63, indicating neutral momentum.

Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.08 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 2376 weeks of data, LUV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 43 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought LUV at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +3.6%.

With a market cap of $23.4 billion, LUV is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 10.1%. The stock trades at 3.4x book value.

The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 13.2% over the past three years.

Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LUV would have grown to $1392, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. LUV has returned 8.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.

Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: LUV vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After LUV Crosses Below the Line?

Across 34 historical episodes, buying LUV when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -6.6% after 12 months (median -9.0%), compared to +11.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 35% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +6.3% vs +22.8% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LUV crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. LUV currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.

Current Bean Score -0.02σ
Current FCF Yield -1.98%
Baseline Yield -2.18%
Historical σ 0.38pp

Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end

Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 22 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

11 / 13 weeks minimum

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

Dislocation Scores Experimental

Each score measures deviation from LUV's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.

2 stacked signals: buyback, value_vs_history
Yield Dislocation +0.13σ Dividend yield vs own 10-yr norm
Drawdown Score -0.58σ Distance from line vs own history
Sector-Relative N/A Vs sector median this week
Buyback Acceleration -8.5pp YoY share change vs own 3-yr pace (− = accelerating)
Insider Intensity 11th TTM buys / market cap, percentile of buyers
FCF Yield vs History +2.2pp Vs own recent annual mean
Earnings Quality Stable Accrual gap trend (+0.0pp of revenue)

Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.

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Historical Touches

LUV has crossed below its 200-week MA 43 times with an average 1-year return of +3.6% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Sep 1981Sep 198111.6%+93.2%+13976.4%
Jul 1984Jul 1984312.7%+65.8%+7314.1%
Aug 1984Oct 1984811.0%+48.9%+7119.0%
Nov 1984Nov 198410.7%+33.4%+6921.8%
Feb 1986Oct 19863619.0%+8.4%+5981.0%
Oct 1986Feb 19871416.3%-37.4%+5664.5%
Mar 1987Jan 19899744.1%-26.3%+5595.9%
Jan 1990Jan 199011.0%+61.0%+6368.6%
Sep 1990Sep 199010.8%+75.8%+6187.2%
Dec 1994Apr 19951921.6%+49.2%+1620.3%
Oct 1995Nov 1995613.9%-0.4%+1167.2%
Dec 1995Jan 199663.7%-3.6%+1139.6%
Jul 1996Apr 19974121.6%+4.9%+1058.3%
May 1997Jul 199754.3%+55.5%+1056.7%
Sep 2001Sep 200111.1%+7.1%+336.9%
Jul 2002Nov 20021923.0%+18.9%+280.1%
Dec 2002Apr 20031922.5%+3.8%+273.6%
May 2003May 200321.1%-7.6%+266.2%
Dec 2003Oct 20059820.6%+0.3%+258.1%
Jun 2006Jun 200610.3%-4.7%+270.1%
Oct 2006Nov 200633.8%-8.2%+274.0%
Dec 2006Jan 200722.3%-15.7%+269.5%
Jan 2007Feb 200734.1%-22.1%+263.8%
Feb 2007Jul 2007198.2%-15.4%+267.6%
Aug 2007Jul 20084923.3%+0.9%+273.4%
Aug 2008Aug 200811.0%-42.7%+280.2%
Sep 2008Feb 20107563.7%-33.6%+281.3%
May 2010Jul 20101011.5%+2.6%+373.3%
Aug 2010Sep 201058.1%-24.9%+394.4%
Apr 2011Apr 201120.3%-30.7%+384.8%
May 2011Jun 201134.1%-23.2%+398.6%
Jul 2011Dec 20127533.2%-16.1%+406.9%
Oct 2018Oct 201810.2%+21.9%+10.8%
Dec 2018Jan 201938.0%+26.1%+19.2%
Mar 2019Mar 201910.3%-29.7%+8.4%
May 2019Jun 201913.9%-28.6%+10.4%
Jul 2019Aug 201922.5%-34.8%+7.4%
Feb 2020Feb 20214949.1%+24.1%+11.2%
Jul 2021Sep 2021104.3%-17.6%+7.2%
Oct 2021Jul 202519444.7%-34.3%+4.5%
Jul 2025Aug 2025410.6%N/A+50.3%
Sep 2025Sep 202521.7%N/A+54.1%
Oct 2025Nov 202514.0%N/A+59.7%
Average21+3.6%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is LUV below its 200-week moving average?

No. Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) is currently 51.4% above its 200-week moving average of $31.68. It would need to fall to $31.68 to cross below the line.

What is LUV's 200-week moving average price?

Southwest Airlines Co.'s 200-week moving average is $31.68 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when LUV drops below its 200-week moving average?

LUV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 43 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +3.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 21 weeks on average.

Is LUV a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about LUV as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 63. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 10.1%. Price-to-book is 3.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does LUV compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in LUV would have grown to $1392, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 8.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. LUV has underperformed the broader market over this period.

Does LUV pay a dividend?

Yes. Southwest Airlines Co. currently pays a dividend yield of 152.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-06-19