LUV
Southwest Airlines Co. Industrials - Airlines Investor Relations →
Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) closed at $40.98 as of 2026-09-18, trading 26.8% above its 200-week moving average of $32.32. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 22.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 40, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.36 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2389 weeks of data, LUV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 43 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought LUV at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +5.1%.
With a market cap of $20.0 billion, LUV is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 11.1%. The stock trades at 2.8x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 13.2% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LUV would have grown to $1195, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. LUV has returned 7.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: LUV vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After LUV Crosses Below the Line?
Across 34 historical episodes, buying LUV when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -3.6% after 12 months (median -7.0%), compared to +11.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 39% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +6.3% vs +22.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LUV crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. LUV currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | $0.52 | $0.94 | +80.2% |
| 2026-04-22 | $0.47 | $0.45 | -5.0% |
| 2026-01-28 | $0.57 | $0.58 | +1.8% |
| 2025-10-22 | $-0.04 | $0.11 | +401.0% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from LUV's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
LUV has crossed below its 200-week MA 43 times with an average 1-year return of +5.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1981 | Sep 1981 | 1 | 1.6% | +93.2% | +11981.5% |
| Jul 1984 | Jul 1984 | 3 | 12.7% | +65.8% | +6263.4% |
| Aug 1984 | Oct 1984 | 8 | 11.0% | +48.9% | +6096.0% |
| Nov 1984 | Nov 1984 | 1 | 0.8% | +33.4% | +5926.7% |
| Feb 1986 | Oct 1986 | 36 | 19.0% | +8.4% | +5119.2% |
| Oct 1986 | Feb 1987 | 14 | 16.3% | -37.4% | +4847.6% |
| Mar 1987 | Jan 1989 | 97 | 44.1% | -26.3% | +4782.1% |
| Jan 1990 | Jan 1990 | 1 | 1.0% | +61.0% | +5451.9% |
| Sep 1990 | Sep 1990 | 1 | 0.8% | +75.8% | +5296.2% |
| Dec 1994 | Apr 1995 | 19 | 21.6% | +49.2% | +1376.5% |
| Oct 1995 | Nov 1995 | 6 | 13.9% | -0.4% | +987.7% |
| Dec 1995 | Jan 1996 | 6 | 3.7% | -3.6% | +964.0% |
| Jul 1996 | Apr 1997 | 41 | 21.7% | +4.9% | +894.1% |
| May 1997 | Jul 1997 | 5 | 4.2% | +55.4% | +892.4% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 1.1% | +7.1% | +275.0% |
| Jul 2002 | Nov 2002 | 19 | 23.0% | +18.9% | +226.3% |
| Dec 2002 | Apr 2003 | 19 | 22.5% | +3.8% | +220.7% |
| May 2003 | May 2003 | 2 | 1.1% | -7.6% | +214.3% |
| Dec 2003 | Oct 2005 | 98 | 20.6% | +0.3% | +207.3% |
| Jun 2006 | Jun 2006 | 1 | 0.3% | -4.7% | +217.5% |
| Oct 2006 | Nov 2006 | 3 | 3.8% | -8.2% | +221.0% |
| Dec 2006 | Jan 2007 | 2 | 2.3% | -15.7% | +217.1% |
| Jan 2007 | Feb 2007 | 3 | 4.1% | -22.1% | +212.2% |
| Feb 2007 | Jul 2007 | 19 | 8.2% | -15.4% | +215.5% |
| Aug 2007 | Jul 2008 | 49 | 23.3% | +0.9% | +220.5% |
| Aug 2008 | Aug 2008 | 1 | 1.0% | -42.7% | +226.3% |
| Sep 2008 | Feb 2010 | 75 | 63.7% | -33.6% | +227.3% |
| May 2010 | Jul 2010 | 10 | 11.5% | +2.6% | +306.2% |
| Aug 2010 | Sep 2010 | 5 | 8.1% | -24.9% | +324.3% |
| Apr 2011 | Apr 2011 | 2 | 0.3% | -30.7% | +316.1% |
| May 2011 | Jun 2011 | 3 | 4.1% | -23.2% | +327.9% |
| Jul 2011 | Dec 2012 | 75 | 33.2% | -16.1% | +335.1% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 1 | 0.2% | +21.9% | -4.9% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 3 | 8.0% | +26.1% | +2.3% |
| Mar 2019 | Mar 2019 | 1 | 0.3% | -29.7% | -7.0% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 3.9% | -28.6% | -5.2% |
| Jul 2019 | Aug 2019 | 2 | 2.5% | -34.8% | -7.9% |
| Feb 2020 | Feb 2021 | 49 | 49.1% | +24.1% | -4.6% |
| Jul 2021 | Sep 2021 | 10 | 4.3% | -17.6% | -8.0% |
| Oct 2021 | Jul 2025 | 194 | 44.7% | -34.3% | -10.3% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 4 | 10.6% | +42.2% | +29.0% |
| Sep 2025 | Sep 2025 | 2 | 1.7% | +27.2% | +31.5% |
| Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 | 1 | 4.0% | N/A | +37.1% |
| Average | 21 | — | +5.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LUV below its 200-week moving average?
No. Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) is currently 26.8% above its 200-week moving average of $32.32. It would need to fall to $32.32 to cross below the line.
What is LUV's 200-week moving average price?
Southwest Airlines Co.'s 200-week moving average is $32.32 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when LUV drops below its 200-week moving average?
LUV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 43 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +5.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 21 weeks on average.
Is LUV a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about LUV as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 40. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 11.1%. Price-to-book is 2.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does LUV compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in LUV would have grown to $1195, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 7.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. LUV has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does LUV pay a dividend?
Yes. Southwest Airlines Co. currently pays a dividend yield of 178.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18