LUMN
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Lumen Technologies Inc. (LUMN) closed at $6.49 as of 2026-03-20, trading 36.1% above its 200-week moving average of $4.77. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 38.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 30, LUMN is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.86 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2352 weeks of data, LUMN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times. On average, these episodes lasted 23 weeks. Historically, investors who bought LUMN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +5.6%.
With a market cap of $6.7 billion, LUMN is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. The stock trades at -6.0x book value.
Share count has increased 2.4% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LUMN would have grown to $204, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. LUMN has returned 2.2% annualized vs 10.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -40% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: LUMN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After LUMN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 28 historical episodes, buying LUMN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +3.1% after 12 months (median +7.0%), compared to +5.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 64% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +3.1% vs +16.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LUMN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
LUMN has crossed below its 200-week MA 35 times with an average 1-year return of +5.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Mar 1981 | 1 | 1.5% | -13.8% | +2472.9% |
| Apr 1981 | Oct 1982 | 76 | 22.1% | -6.3% | +2513.1% |
| Feb 1984 | Mar 1984 | 6 | 3.4% | +25.0% | +2513.1% |
| Apr 1984 | Apr 1984 | 1 | 0.4% | +28.8% | +2433.9% |
| May 1984 | Jun 1984 | 4 | 4.7% | +32.8% | +2513.1% |
| Jul 1984 | Jul 1984 | 4 | 4.5% | +43.1% | +2472.9% |
| Aug 1984 | Sep 1984 | 4 | 2.9% | +52.3% | +2472.9% |
| Apr 1997 | Apr 1997 | 3 | 0.2% | +120.6% | +77.7% |
| May 1997 | May 1997 | 1 | 1.0% | +141.8% | +79.2% |
| Apr 2000 | May 2000 | 5 | 13.4% | +12.6% | -7.9% |
| Jun 2000 | Jul 2000 | 1 | 0.4% | +6.1% | -21.6% |
| Jul 2000 | Jul 2000 | 2 | 1.2% | +9.5% | -22.3% |
| Aug 2000 | Oct 2000 | 7 | 11.4% | +19.6% | -23.3% |
| Jan 2001 | Aug 2001 | 28 | 16.1% | +5.4% | -26.2% |
| Sep 2001 | May 2003 | 85 | 33.2% | -17.4% | -25.4% |
| Jan 2004 | Aug 2004 | 28 | 14.0% | +24.1% | -16.6% |
| Apr 2005 | May 2005 | 3 | 1.9% | +23.7% | -28.9% |
| Jan 2008 | Aug 2008 | 30 | 17.3% | -17.5% | -40.4% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2009 | 53 | 39.6% | +18.5% | -32.0% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 1 | 1.5% | +38.4% | -42.4% |
| Aug 2013 | Oct 2013 | 10 | 5.5% | +31.0% | -56.9% |
| Nov 2013 | Mar 2014 | 20 | 12.5% | +33.9% | -55.4% |
| Jun 2015 | Jun 2015 | 1 | 0.4% | -8.2% | -60.9% |
| Jun 2015 | Feb 2016 | 36 | 24.7% | +0.6% | -58.1% |
| May 2016 | Jul 2016 | 9 | 11.6% | -10.1% | -58.4% |
| Aug 2016 | Aug 2018 | 104 | 45.4% | -27.7% | -59.6% |
| Oct 2018 | Mar 2021 | 123 | 44.1% | -26.8% | -52.6% |
| Aug 2021 | Aug 2021 | 1 | 0.2% | -1.2% | -38.5% |
| Feb 2022 | Mar 2022 | 5 | 12.8% | -58.0% | -31.2% |
| Apr 2022 | May 2022 | 3 | 8.6% | -78.4% | -37.3% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 2.7% | -77.8% | -36.1% |
| Jul 2022 | Jul 2022 | 1 | 0.1% | -81.6% | -37.0% |
| Aug 2022 | Sep 2024 | 108 | 86.4% | -83.6% | -32.5% |
| Oct 2024 | Oct 2024 | 3 | 7.5% | +6.1% | +4.7% |
| Dec 2024 | Sep 2025 | 39 | 46.0% | +30.6% | -0.3% |
| Average | 23 | — | +5.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LUMN below its 200-week moving average?
No. Lumen Technologies Inc. (LUMN) is currently 36.1% above its 200-week moving average of $4.77. It would need to fall to $4.77 to cross below the line.
What is LUMN's 200-week moving average price?
Lumen Technologies Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $4.77 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when LUMN drops below its 200-week moving average?
LUMN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +5.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 23 weeks on average.
Is LUMN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about LUMN as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 30 (oversold). Free cash flow is currently negative. Price-to-book is -6.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does LUMN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.2 years, $100 invested in LUMN would have grown to $204, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. That's 2.2% annualized vs 10.4% for the index. LUMN has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20