LTC
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LTC Properties, Inc. (LTC) closed at $40.24 as of 2026-07-31, trading 28.2% above its 200-week moving average of $31.38. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 34.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 58, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.08 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1723 weeks of data, LTC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought LTC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +26.3%.
With a market cap of $2.1 billion, LTC is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 11.4%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 11.3%. The stock trades at 2.0x book value.
Share count has increased 17.5% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LTC would have grown to $3169, compared to $3000 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.0% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming LTC as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 8.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: LTC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After LTC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying LTC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +25.7% after 12 months (median +14.0%), compared to +14.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 74% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +53.2% vs +29.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LTC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices LTC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where LTC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $35.40 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $37.47 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $39.79 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $42.43 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $45.43 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from LTC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
LTC has crossed below its 200-week MA 19 times with an average 1-year return of +26.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1999 | Apr 1999 | 11 | 15.9% | -44.6% | +1659.8% |
| May 1999 | Jan 2002 | 140 | 66.9% | -47.9% | +1634.4% |
| Jan 2002 | Mar 2002 | 7 | 9.1% | -8.2% | +2289.1% |
| Jul 2002 | Jul 2002 | 1 | 1.1% | +54.7% | +2417.7% |
| Oct 2002 | Oct 2002 | 2 | 0.3% | +102.1% | +2500.4% |
| Feb 2003 | Feb 2003 | 1 | 7.1% | +197.9% | +2808.9% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 1 | 3.9% | +25.1% | +455.3% |
| Nov 2008 | May 2009 | 28 | 22.7% | +45.3% | +488.6% |
| Jun 2009 | Jul 2009 | 4 | 5.2% | +42.6% | +441.0% |
| Jan 2018 | May 2018 | 20 | 13.9% | +12.7% | +67.6% |
| Mar 2020 | Dec 2020 | 40 | 34.3% | +38.7% | +80.2% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 0.2% | -2.4% | +47.8% |
| Jun 2021 | Jun 2021 | 1 | 1.5% | +5.5% | +49.2% |
| Aug 2021 | Mar 2022 | 32 | 13.7% | +25.0% | +55.6% |
| Apr 2022 | May 2022 | 4 | 8.7% | +0.8% | +46.2% |
| Mar 2023 | Jul 2023 | 18 | 9.1% | +2.4% | +49.0% |
| Aug 2023 | Nov 2023 | 14 | 6.5% | +20.2% | +53.6% |
| Dec 2023 | Mar 2024 | 10 | 3.7% | +14.5% | +47.9% |
| Apr 2024 | Apr 2024 | 2 | 1.1% | +16.0% | +46.2% |
| Average | 18 | — | +26.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LTC below its 200-week moving average?
No. LTC Properties, Inc. (LTC) is currently 28.2% above its 200-week moving average of $31.38. It would need to fall to $31.38 to cross below the line.
What is LTC's 200-week moving average price?
LTC Properties, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $31.38 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when LTC drops below its 200-week moving average?
LTC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +26.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 18 weeks on average.
Is LTC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about LTC as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 58. Free cash flow yield is 11.4%. Return on equity is 11.3%. Price-to-book is 2.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does LTC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.1 years, $100 invested in LTC would have grown to $3169, compared to $3000 for the S&P 500. That's 11.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. LTC has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does LTC pay a dividend?
Yes. LTC Properties, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 566.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31