LSTR

Landstar System, Inc. Industrials - Integrated Freight & Logistics Investor Relations →

NO
3.9% ABOVE
↓ Approaching Was 5.4% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Signal Threshold $163.96
14-Week RSI 22 📉
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 1.1x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 1.13

Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR) closed at $170.29 as of 2026-09-18, trading 3.9% above its 200-week moving average of $163.96. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 5.4% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 22, LSTR is in oversold territory.

Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.13 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 1702 weeks of data, LSTR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought LSTR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +23.1%.

With a market cap of $5.8 billion, LSTR is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.7%. Return on equity stands at 15.0%, a solid level. The stock trades at 6.9x book value.

The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.2% over the past three years.

Over the past 32.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LSTR would have grown to $7160, compared to $2899 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.0% vs 10.9% for the index — confirming LSTR as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.

Free cash flow has been declining at a -28.8% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: LSTR vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After LSTR Crosses Below the Line?

Across 20 historical episodes, buying LSTR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +17.8% after 12 months (median +11.0%), compared to +24.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +38.6% vs +51.0% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LSTR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices LSTR would reach each dislocation threshold.

Current Bean Score +1.40σ
Current FCF Yield 3.04%
Baseline Yield 2.49%
Historical σ 0.55pp

Dislocation Price Levels

Prices where LSTR's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-27.

LevelσPriceSignal
Deep Value+2σ$153.67Unusually cheap — analysis point
Value+1σ$183.57Cheap vs. own history
Fair Value+0σ$227.93Historical mean behavior
Expensive-1σ$300.56Expensive vs. own history
Deep Expensive-2σ$441.12Unusually expensive — analysis point

Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end

Recent Earnings

DateEPS Est.EPS ActualSurprise
2026-07-28$1.48$1.44-3.0%
2026-04-28$1.12$1.16+3.2%
2026-01-28$1.09$0.75-31.3%
2025-10-28$1.23$1.22-0.5%
Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 24 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

13 / 13 weeks minimum

the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

Dislocation Scores Experimental

Each score measures deviation from LSTR's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.

Yield Dislocation +0.47σ Dividend yield vs own 10-yr norm
Drawdown Score +0.90σ Distance from line vs own history
Sector-Relative +0.48σ Vs sector median this week
Buyback Acceleration -1.8pp YoY share change vs own 3-yr pace (− = accelerating)
Insider Intensity N/A TTM buys / market cap, percentile of buyers
FCF Yield vs History -4.5pp Vs own recent annual mean
Earnings Quality Stable Accrual gap trend (-0.3pp of revenue)

Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.

Historical Touches

LSTR has crossed below its 200-week MA 20 times with an average 1-year return of +23.1% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Jun 1995Jun 199528.4%+32.6%+7878.0%
Sep 1995Oct 199557.4%+22.2%+7656.4%
Jan 1996Mar 1996102.9%-2.1%+7248.1%
Apr 1996Apr 199613.0%-1.1%+7248.1%
Jul 1996Jul 199611.0%+11.2%+7023.2%
Aug 1996Aug 199622.1%+4.8%+7023.2%
Oct 1996Jan 19971213.4%+4.1%+7096.6%
Jan 1997May 19971612.1%+5.7%+7096.6%
Jul 1997Aug 199755.7%+41.6%+6811.6%
Sep 1997Dec 199797.7%+9.3%+6548.3%
Dec 1997Feb 199876.0%+57.5%+6612.2%
Aug 1998Sep 199811.1%+40.6%+6275.1%
Oct 1998Oct 1998112.9%+50.3%+7133.9%
Sep 2008Apr 20107934.7%-3.6%+460.7%
May 2010Jan 20113111.7%+10.7%+432.4%
Jan 2011Jan 201110.6%+26.9%+424.2%
Aug 2011Oct 201199.3%+20.4%+426.1%
Dec 2015Feb 201685.3%+55.8%+257.3%
Mar 2020Apr 202033.3%+81.7%+107.9%
Jan 2025Mar 20266124.5%-7.0%+6.8%
Average13+23.1%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is LSTR below its 200-week moving average?

No. Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR) is currently 3.9% above its 200-week moving average of $163.96. It would need to fall to $163.96 to cross below the line.

What is LSTR's 200-week moving average price?

Landstar System, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $163.96 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when LSTR drops below its 200-week moving average?

LSTR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +23.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 13 weeks on average.

Is LSTR a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about LSTR as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 22 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 1.7%. Return on equity is 15.0%. Price-to-book is 6.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does LSTR compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 32.7 years, $100 invested in LSTR would have grown to $7160, compared to $2899 for the S&P 500. That's 14.0% annualized vs 10.9% for the index. LSTR has outperformed the broader market over this period.

Does LSTR pay a dividend?

Yes. Landstar System, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 103.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-09-18