LSTR
Landstar System, Inc. Industrials - Integrated Freight & Logistics Investor Relations →
Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR) closed at $170.29 as of 2026-09-18, trading 3.9% above its 200-week moving average of $163.96. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 5.4% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 22, LSTR is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.13 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1702 weeks of data, LSTR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought LSTR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +23.1%.
With a market cap of $5.8 billion, LSTR is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.7%. Return on equity stands at 15.0%, a solid level. The stock trades at 6.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.2% over the past three years.
Over the past 32.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LSTR would have grown to $7160, compared to $2899 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.0% vs 10.9% for the index — confirming LSTR as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -28.8% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: LSTR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After LSTR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying LSTR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +17.8% after 12 months (median +11.0%), compared to +24.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +38.6% vs +51.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LSTR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices LSTR would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where LSTR's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-27.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $153.67 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $183.57 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $227.93 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $300.56 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $441.12 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | $1.48 | $1.44 | -3.0% |
| 2026-04-28 | $1.12 | $1.16 | +3.2% |
| 2026-01-28 | $1.09 | $0.75 | -31.3% |
| 2025-10-28 | $1.23 | $1.22 | -0.5% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from LSTR's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
LSTR has crossed below its 200-week MA 20 times with an average 1-year return of +23.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1995 | Jun 1995 | 2 | 8.4% | +32.6% | +7878.0% |
| Sep 1995 | Oct 1995 | 5 | 7.4% | +22.2% | +7656.4% |
| Jan 1996 | Mar 1996 | 10 | 2.9% | -2.1% | +7248.1% |
| Apr 1996 | Apr 1996 | 1 | 3.0% | -1.1% | +7248.1% |
| Jul 1996 | Jul 1996 | 1 | 1.0% | +11.2% | +7023.2% |
| Aug 1996 | Aug 1996 | 2 | 2.1% | +4.8% | +7023.2% |
| Oct 1996 | Jan 1997 | 12 | 13.4% | +4.1% | +7096.6% |
| Jan 1997 | May 1997 | 16 | 12.1% | +5.7% | +7096.6% |
| Jul 1997 | Aug 1997 | 5 | 5.7% | +41.6% | +6811.6% |
| Sep 1997 | Dec 1997 | 9 | 7.7% | +9.3% | +6548.3% |
| Dec 1997 | Feb 1998 | 7 | 6.0% | +57.5% | +6612.2% |
| Aug 1998 | Sep 1998 | 1 | 1.1% | +40.6% | +6275.1% |
| Oct 1998 | Oct 1998 | 1 | 12.9% | +50.3% | +7133.9% |
| Sep 2008 | Apr 2010 | 79 | 34.7% | -3.6% | +460.7% |
| May 2010 | Jan 2011 | 31 | 11.7% | +10.7% | +432.4% |
| Jan 2011 | Jan 2011 | 1 | 0.6% | +26.9% | +424.2% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 9 | 9.3% | +20.4% | +426.1% |
| Dec 2015 | Feb 2016 | 8 | 5.3% | +55.8% | +257.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 3.3% | +81.7% | +107.9% |
| Jan 2025 | Mar 2026 | 61 | 24.5% | -7.0% | +6.8% |
| Average | 13 | — | +23.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LSTR below its 200-week moving average?
No. Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR) is currently 3.9% above its 200-week moving average of $163.96. It would need to fall to $163.96 to cross below the line.
What is LSTR's 200-week moving average price?
Landstar System, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $163.96 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when LSTR drops below its 200-week moving average?
LSTR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +23.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 13 weeks on average.
Is LSTR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about LSTR as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 22 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 1.7%. Return on equity is 15.0%. Price-to-book is 6.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does LSTR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 32.7 years, $100 invested in LSTR would have grown to $7160, compared to $2899 for the S&P 500. That's 14.0% annualized vs 10.9% for the index. LSTR has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does LSTR pay a dividend?
Yes. Landstar System, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 103.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18