LPX

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation Industrials - Building Products & Equipment Investor Relations →

YES
7.0% BELOW
↓ Approaching Was -4.2% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $77.85
14-Week RSI 47
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 1.1x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 1.05

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX) closed at $72.43 as of 2026-07-31, trading 7.0% below its 200-week moving average of $77.85. This places LPX in the deep value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -4.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 47, indicating neutral momentum.

Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.05 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 2371 weeks of data, LPX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times. On average, these episodes lasted 30 weeks. Historically, investors who bought LPX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +27.8%.

With a market cap of $5.1 billion, LPX is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 4.8%. The stock trades at 2.9x book value.

Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LPX would have grown to $331, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. LPX has returned 3.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.

In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 2 open-market purchases totaling $1,959,592. Notably, these purchases occurred while LPX is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.

Free cash flow has been declining at a -50% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: LPX vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After LPX Crosses Below the Line?

Across 21 historical episodes, buying LPX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +28.2% after 12 months (median +21.0%), compared to +19.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 68% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +50.3% vs +32.1% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LPX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. LPX currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.

Current Bean Score +0.16σ
Current FCF Yield -0.14%
Baseline Yield -0.16%
Historical σ 0.13pp

Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end

Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 26 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

12 / 13 weeks minimum

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

Dislocation Scores Experimental

Each score measures deviation from LPX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.

Yield Dislocation -0.31σ Dividend yield vs own 10-yr norm
Drawdown Score +0.57σ Distance from line vs own history
Sector-Relative -0.03σ Vs sector median this week
Buyback Acceleration +0.2pp YoY share change vs own 3-yr pace (− = accelerating)
Insider Intensity 70th TTM buys / market cap, percentile of buyers
FCF Yield vs History -7.4pp Vs own recent annual mean
Earnings Quality Improving Accrual gap trend (-3.1pp of revenue)

Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.

Insider Buying Activity

1 conviction buy in the past 12 months (purchases over $500K with meaningful position increases).

DateInsiderTitleValueSharesPosition +%
2026-02-19GRASBERGER F NICHOLAS IIIDirector$1,709,80020,000+96.0%

Historical Touches

LPX has crossed below its 200-week MA 29 times with an average 1-year return of +27.8% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Jul 1981Oct 19826532.1%-32.5%+1846.9%
Apr 1984Jan 19853925.0%-9.0%+1866.6%
Mar 1985May 19851010.5%+37.3%+1925.4%
Jul 1985Nov 19851716.3%+22.4%+2002.3%
Jan 1986Jan 198610.2%+66.4%+1878.0%
Nov 1988Nov 198810.2%+52.9%+1388.3%
Aug 1990Feb 19912634.4%+39.6%+1083.6%
Mar 1991Apr 199132.5%+117.6%+1091.8%
Mar 1995May 199587.8%-4.0%+326.2%
May 1995Mar 199814634.1%+21.7%+421.5%
Mar 1998Apr 19995524.9%-14.1%+367.9%
May 1999May 199910.5%-39.6%+404.3%
Aug 1999Jun 200319757.0%-43.3%+416.9%
Jul 2006Nov 2006179.8%-8.4%+353.6%
Feb 2007Apr 201016792.4%-35.8%+313.7%
May 2010Dec 20103236.5%-14.0%+703.4%
May 2011Jun 2011711.7%+12.2%+875.4%
Jul 2011Nov 20111832.5%+43.0%+969.8%
Oct 2014Oct 201411.5%+33.4%+536.3%
Jul 2015Aug 201522.1%+40.5%+472.2%
Sep 2015Oct 201513.3%+27.6%+461.7%
Jan 2016Feb 2016710.2%+26.7%+427.7%
Mar 2016Mar 201623.3%+57.3%+428.1%
Dec 2018Dec 201822.2%+36.2%+280.6%
Aug 2019Aug 201912.9%+56.1%+264.7%
Mar 2020Jun 20201642.5%+158.4%+282.8%
Oct 2023Oct 202311.6%+102.5%+48.9%
Mar 2026Jun 2026148.9%N/A-4.0%
Jul 2026Ongoing4+7.0%Ongoing-1.0%
Average30+27.8%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is LPX below its 200-week moving average?

Yes. As of 2026-07-31, Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX) is trading 7.0% below its 200-week moving average of $77.85. The current price is $72.43.

What is LPX's 200-week moving average price?

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation's 200-week moving average is $77.85 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when LPX drops below its 200-week moving average?

LPX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +27.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 30 weeks on average.

Is LPX a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about LPX as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 47. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 4.8%. Price-to-book is 2.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does LPX compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in LPX would have grown to $331, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 3.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. LPX has underperformed the broader market over this period.

Does LPX pay a dividend?

Yes. Louisiana-Pacific Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 167.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-07-31