LPX
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation Industrials - Building Products & Equipment Investor Relations →
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX) closed at $65.32 as of 2026-09-18, trading 16.4% below its 200-week moving average of $78.14. This places LPX in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -13.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 38, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.12 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2378 weeks of data, LPX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times. On average, these episodes lasted 30 weeks. Historically, investors who bought LPX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +27.8%.
With a market cap of $4.6 billion, LPX is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 3.1%. The stock trades at 2.6x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LPX would have grown to $300, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. LPX has returned 3.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 2 open-market purchases totaling $1,959,592. Notably, these purchases occurred while LPX is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -50% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: LPX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After LPX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying LPX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +28.2% after 12 months (median +21.0%), compared to +19.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 68% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +50.3% vs +32.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LPX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. LPX currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $0.57 | $0.40 | -29.7% |
| 2026-05-06 | $0.15 | $0.38 | +146.9% |
| 2026-02-17 | $-0.02 | $0.03 | +279.5% |
| 2025-11-05 | $0.38 | $0.36 | -5.4% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from LPX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
LPX has crossed below its 200-week MA 29 times with an average 1-year return of +27.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1981 | Oct 1982 | 65 | 32.1% | -32.5% | +1662.9% |
| Apr 1984 | Jan 1985 | 39 | 25.0% | -9.0% | +1680.8% |
| Mar 1985 | May 1985 | 10 | 10.5% | +37.3% | +1734.0% |
| Jul 1985 | Nov 1985 | 17 | 16.3% | +22.4% | +1803.6% |
| Jan 1986 | Jan 1986 | 1 | 0.2% | +66.4% | +1691.1% |
| Nov 1988 | Nov 1988 | 1 | 0.2% | +52.9% | +1247.6% |
| Aug 1990 | Feb 1991 | 26 | 34.4% | +39.6% | +971.8% |
| Mar 1991 | Apr 1991 | 3 | 2.5% | +117.6% | +979.1% |
| Mar 1995 | May 1995 | 8 | 7.8% | -4.0% | +285.9% |
| May 1995 | Mar 1998 | 146 | 34.1% | +21.7% | +372.3% |
| Mar 1998 | Apr 1999 | 55 | 24.9% | -14.1% | +323.7% |
| May 1999 | May 1999 | 1 | 0.5% | -39.6% | +356.6% |
| Aug 1999 | Jun 2003 | 197 | 57.0% | -43.3% | +368.0% |
| Jul 2006 | Nov 2006 | 17 | 9.8% | -8.4% | +310.7% |
| Feb 2007 | Apr 2010 | 167 | 92.4% | -35.8% | +274.6% |
| May 2010 | Dec 2010 | 32 | 36.5% | -14.0% | +627.4% |
| May 2011 | Jun 2011 | 7 | 11.7% | +12.2% | +783.2% |
| Jul 2011 | Nov 2011 | 18 | 32.5% | +43.0% | +868.7% |
| Oct 2014 | Oct 2014 | 1 | 1.5% | +33.4% | +476.2% |
| Jul 2015 | Aug 2015 | 2 | 2.1% | +40.5% | +418.1% |
| Sep 2015 | Oct 2015 | 1 | 3.3% | +27.6% | +408.6% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 7 | 10.2% | +26.7% | +377.9% |
| Mar 2016 | Mar 2016 | 2 | 3.3% | +57.3% | +378.2% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 2 | 2.2% | +36.2% | +244.6% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 1 | 2.9% | +56.1% | +230.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Jun 2020 | 16 | 42.5% | +158.4% | +246.6% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 1.6% | +102.5% | +34.8% |
| Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 | 14 | 8.9% | N/A | -13.1% |
| Jul 2026 | Ongoing | 11+ | 16.4% | Ongoing | -10.4% |
| Average | 30 | — | +27.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LPX below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX) is trading 16.4% below its 200-week moving average of $78.14. The current price is $65.32.
What is LPX's 200-week moving average price?
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation's 200-week moving average is $78.14 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when LPX drops below its 200-week moving average?
LPX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +27.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 30 weeks on average.
Is LPX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about LPX as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 38. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 3.1%. Price-to-book is 2.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does LPX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in LPX would have grown to $300, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 3.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. LPX has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does LPX pay a dividend?
Yes. Louisiana-Pacific Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 184.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18