LPLA
LPL Financial Holdings Inc. Financial Services - Capital Markets Investor Relations →
LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (LPLA) closed at $353.70 as of 2026-07-31, trading 26.2% above its 200-week moving average of $280.34. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 17.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 59, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.85 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 771 weeks of data, LPLA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought LPLA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +64.0%.
With a market cap of $28.3 billion, LPLA is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 18.6%, a solid level. The stock trades at 5.0x book value.
Over the past 14.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LPLA would have grown to $1570, compared to $771 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 20.4% vs 14.8% for the index — confirming LPLA as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: LPLA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After LPLA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 7 historical episodes, buying LPLA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +62.0% after 12 months (median +45.0%), compared to +27.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +111.0% vs +48.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LPLA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. LPLA currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from LPLA's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
LPLA has crossed below its 200-week MA 8 times with an average 1-year return of +64.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2011 | Jan 2012 | 11 | 14.5% | +6.1% | +1480.2% |
| May 2012 | May 2012 | 1 | 0.9% | +29.8% | +1317.8% |
| Jul 2012 | Jan 2013 | 25 | 15.3% | +44.7% | +1455.6% |
| Jan 2016 | Nov 2016 | 44 | 57.3% | +15.5% | +1060.2% |
| Dec 2016 | Jan 2017 | 4 | 5.6% | +57.8% | +981.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 6 | 21.9% | +230.0% | +718.5% |
| May 2026 | Jun 2026 | 1 | 1.0% | N/A | +29.2% |
| Jun 2026 | Jun 2026 | 1 | 3.2% | N/A | +31.6% |
| Average | 12 | — | +64.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LPLA below its 200-week moving average?
No. LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (LPLA) is currently 26.2% above its 200-week moving average of $280.34. It would need to fall to $280.34 to cross below the line.
What is LPLA's 200-week moving average price?
LPL Financial Holdings Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $280.34 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when LPLA drops below its 200-week moving average?
LPLA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +64.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 12 weeks on average.
Is LPLA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about LPLA as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 59. Return on equity is 18.6%. Price-to-book is 5.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does LPLA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 14.8 years, $100 invested in LPLA would have grown to $1570, compared to $771 for the S&P 500. That's 20.4% annualized vs 14.8% for the index. LPLA has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does LPLA pay a dividend?
Yes. LPL Financial Holdings Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 34.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31