LPG
Dorian LPG Energy Investor Relations →
Dorian LPG (LPG) closed at $55.18 as of 2026-09-11, trading 112.3% above its 200-week moving average of $25.99. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 114.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 69, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.87 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 596 weeks of data, LPG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times. On average, these episodes lasted 34 weeks. Historically, investors who bought LPG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +50.3%.
With a market cap of $2.4 billion, LPG is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 28.3%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 1.9x book value.
Share count has increased 5.9% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 11.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in LPG would have grown to $975, compared to $442 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 21.9% vs 13.8% for the index — confirming LPG as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -9.2% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: LPG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After LPG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 7 historical episodes, buying LPG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +46.9% after 12 months (median +73.0%), compared to +27.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 71% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +109.5% vs +33.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment LPG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices LPG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where LPG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $34.04 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $37.77 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $42.41 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $48.34 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $56.22 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $2.08 | $2.52 | +21.1% |
| 2026-05-20 | $1.30 | $1.89 | +46.0% |
| 2026-02-05 | $1.16 | $1.11 | -4.3% |
| 2025-11-06 | $1.50 | $1.31 | -12.8% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from LPG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
LPG has crossed below its 200-week MA 7 times with an average 1-year return of +50.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2015 | Jun 2015 | 11 | 18.4% | -26.9% | +848.8% |
| Jul 2015 | Jun 2019 | 204 | 61.2% | -56.9% | +735.1% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 4 | 14.0% | +89.0% | +1687.8% |
| May 2020 | Aug 2020 | 12 | 13.7% | +99.6% | +1621.3% |
| Aug 2020 | Oct 2020 | 6 | 12.0% | +69.3% | +1424.9% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 2 | 6.3% | +60.0% | +1480.6% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 12.2% | +118.0% | +264.2% |
| Average | 34 | — | +50.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LPG below its 200-week moving average?
No. Dorian LPG (LPG) is currently 112.3% above its 200-week moving average of $25.99. It would need to fall to $25.99 to cross below the line.
What is LPG's 200-week moving average price?
Dorian LPG's 200-week moving average is $25.99 as of 2026-09-11. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when LPG drops below its 200-week moving average?
LPG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +50.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 34 weeks on average.
Is LPG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about LPG as of 2026-09-11: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 69. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 28.3%. Price-to-book is 1.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does LPG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 11.5 years, $100 invested in LPG would have grown to $975, compared to $442 for the S&P 500. That's 21.9% annualized vs 13.8% for the index. LPG has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does LPG pay a dividend?
Yes. Dorian LPG currently pays a dividend yield of 607.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-11